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Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human behavior, but common practices to use LLM-generated data are inefficient. Treating an LLM's output ("model choice") as a single data point underutilizes the information…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Hongshen Sun , Juanjuan Zhang

We introduce fully nonparametric two-sample tests for testing the null hypothesis that the samples come from the same distribution if the values are only indirectly given via current status censoring. The tests are based on the likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-12 Piet Groeneboom

The generalized least square (GLS) is one of the most basic tools in regression analyses. A major issue in implementing the GLS is estimation of the conditional variance function of the error term, which typically requires a restrictive…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-24 Yoichi Arai , Taisuke Otsu , Mengshan Xu

I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap procedure for the empirical likelihood, the exponential tilting, and the exponentially tilted empirical likelihood estimators that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-03 Seojeong Lee

Assume that we have a random sample from an absolutely continuous distribution (univariate, or multivariate) with a known functional form and some unknown parameters. In this paper, we have studied several parametric tests based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Rahul Singh , Neeraj Misra

In this article we revisit the problem of numerical integration for monotone bounded functions, with a focus on the class of nonsequential Monte Carlo methods. We first provide new a lower bound on the maximal $L^p$ error of nonsequential…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-01-05 Subhasish Basak , Julien Bect , Emmanuel Vazquez

We extend in two directions our previous results about the sampling and the empirical measures of immortal branching Markov processes. Direct applications to molecular biology are rigorous estimates of the mutation rates of polymerase chain…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Didier Piau

The use of standard statistical methods, such as maximum likelihood, is often justified based on their asymptotic properties. For suitably regular models, this theory is standard but, when the model is non-regular, e.g., the support depends…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-25 Ryan Martin , Yi Lin

We study non-parametric regression estimates for random fields. The data satisfies certain strong mixing conditions and is defined on the regular $N$-dimensional lattice structure. We show consistency and obtain rates of convergence. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-06 Johannes T. N. Krebs

We propose a new nonparametric estimator for first-price auctions with independent private values that imposes the monotonicity constraint on the estimated inverse bidding strategy. We show that our estimator has a smaller asymptotic…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-10 Jun Ma , Vadim Marmer , Artyom Shneyerov , Pai Xu

Monte Carlo methods to evaluate and maximize the likelihood function enable the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, facilitating scientific investigation using models for which the likelihood function is intractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-13 Edward L. Ionides , Carles Breto , Joonha Park , Richard A. Smith , Aaron A. King

We consider the problem of constructing robust nonparametric confidence intervals and tests of hypothesis for the median when the data distribution is unknown and the data may contain a small fraction of contamination. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Victor J. Yohai , Ruben H. Zamar

Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to be unreliable in the factuality of their answers. To address this problem, NLP researchers have proposed a range of techniques to estimate LLM's confidence over facts. However, due to the lack of a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Matéo Mahaut , Laura Aina , Paula Czarnowska , Momchil Hardalov , Thomas Müller , Lluís Màrquez

This paper considers the problem of comparing two processes with panel data. A nonparametric test is proposed for detecting a monotone change in the link between the two process distributions. The test statistic is of CUSUM type, based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-04 Denys Pommeret , Mohamed Boutahar , Badih Ghattas

For nonparametric regression with one-sided errors and a boundary curve model for Poisson point processes we consider the problem of efficient estimation for linear functionals. The minimax optimal rate is obtained by an unbiased estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-25 Markus Reiß , Leonie Selk

Statistical inference on histograms and frequency counts plays a central role in categorical data analysis. Moving beyond classical methods that directly analyze labeled frequencies, we introduce a framework that models the multiset of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-10 Yun Ma , Pengkun Yang

We present new results for consistency of maximum likelihood estimators with a focus on multivariate mixed models. Our theory builds on the idea of using subsets of the full data to establish consistency of estimators based on the full…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-13 Karl Oskar Ekvall , Galin L. Jones

We developed a statistical inference method applicable to a broad range of generalized linear models (GLMs) in high-dimensional settings, where the number of unknown coefficients scales proportionally with the sample size. Although a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-24 Kazuma Sawaya , Yoshimasa Uematsu , Masaaki Imaizumi

Operational risk models commonly employ maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to fit loss data to heavy-tailed distributions. Yet several desirable properties of MLE (e.g. asymptotic normality) are generally valid only for large sample-sizes,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-08-26 Paul Larsen

In this paper, we study sample size thresholds for maximum likelihood estimation for tensor normal models. Given the model parameters and the number of samples, we determine whether, almost surely, (1) the likelihood function is bounded…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-09 Harm Derksen , Visu Makam , Michael Walter