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Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-02 Efstratios Manolakis , Anton J. Heckens , Benjamin Köhler , Thomas Guhr

We study Markovian and non-Markovian behaviour of stochastic processes generated by $p$-adic random dynamical systems. Given a family of $p$-adic monomial random mappings generating a random dynamical system. Under which conditions do the…

Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases · Physics 2010-11-30 Sergio Albeverio , Matthias Gundlach , Andrei Khrennikov , Karl-Olof Lindahl

We say that a random variable is $light$-$tailed$ if moments of order $2+\epsilon$ are finite for some $\epsilon>0$; otherwise, we say that it is $heavy$-$tailed$. We study queueing networks that operate under the Max-Weight scheduling…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-28 Arsalan Sharifnassab , John N. Tsitsiklis

Metastability is a physical phenomenon ubiquitous in first order phase transitions. A fruitful mathematical way to approach this phenomenon is the study of rare transitions Markov chains. For Metropolis chains associated with Statistical…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-30 Emilio Cirillo , Francesca Nardi , Julien Sohier

We consider a general class of finite dimensional deterministic dynamical systems with finitely many local attractors $K^i$ each of which supports a unique ergodic probability measure $P^i$, which includes in particular the class of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-22 Michael Högele , Ilya Pavlyukevich

It is shown how a natural representation of perpetuities as asymptotically homogeneous in space Markov chains allows to prove various asymptotic tail results for stable perpetuities and limit theorems for unstable ones. Some of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-29 Dmitry Korshunov

Markov chains are the de facto finite-state model for stochastic dynamical systems, and Markov decision processes (MDPs) extend Markov chains by incorporating non-deterministic behaviors. Given an MDP and rewards on states, a classical…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-11-13 Krishnendu Chatterjee , Laurent Doyen

We prove the existence of limiting distributions for a large class of Markov chains on a general state space in a random environment. We assume suitable versions of the standard drift and minorization conditions. In particular, the system…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-04 Attila Lovas , Miklós Rásonyi

In this paper we first provide several conditional limit theorems for L\'evy processes with negative drift and regularly varying tail. Then we apply them to study the asymptotic behavior of expectations of some exponential functionals of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-29 Wei Xu

We propose a stochastic process driven by memory effect with novel distributions including both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of distribution is analytically derived from the continuum limit of the discrete…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-14 Jongwook Kim , Gabjin Oh

In this paper we propagate a large deviations approach for proving limit theory for (generally) multivariate time series with heavy tails. We make this notion precise by introducing regularly varying time series. We provide general large…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 T. Mikosch , O. Wintenberger

We propose a method for approximating solutions to optimization problems involving the global stability properties of parameter-dependent continuous-time autonomous dynamical systems. The method relies on an approximation of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-08-12 Péter Koltai , Alexander Volf

The criticality hypothesis posits that biological neural networks operate near a phase transition, yet within standard Gaussian mean-field theories this regime appears fragile and requires fine tuning. Here we show that heavy-tailed…

Biological Physics · Physics 2026-03-20 Ryota Kojima

We consider non-i.i.d. random holomorphic dynamical systems whose choice of maps depends on Markovian rules. We show that generically, such a system is mean stable or chaotic with full Julia set. If a system is mean stable, then the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-04-25 Hiroki Sumi , Takayuki Watanabe

Given a sequence of i.i.d. random functions $\Psi_{n}:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$, $n\in\mathbb{N}$, we consider the iterated function system and Markov chain which is recursively defined by $X_{0}^{x}:=x$ and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-07 Gerold Alsmeyer , Sara Brofferio , Dariusz Buraczewski

Continuous-time Markov chains are used to model stochastic systems where transitions can occur at irregular times, e.g., birth-death processes, chemical reaction networks, population dynamics, and gene regulatory networks. We develop a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Majerle Reeves , Harish S. Bhat

This paper studies the light-tailed asymptotics of the stationary tail probability vectors of a Markov chain of M/G/1 type. Almost all related studies have focused on the typical case, where the transition block matrices in the non-boundary…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-05 Tatsuaki Kimura , Kentaro Daikoku , Hiroyuki Masuyama , Yutaka Takahashi

In a general class of one dimensional random differential equation the convergence of the distribution function of the solution to stationary state distribution is studied. In particular it is proved the boundedness respectively the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-07 Gyorgy Steinbrecher , Xavier Garbet , Boris Weyssow

Intermittent large amplitude events are seen in the temporal evolution of a state variable of many dynamical systems. Such intermittent large events suddenly start appearing in dynamical systems at a critical value of a system parameter and…

Although the notion of diagnostic problem has been extensively investigated in the context of static systems, in most practical applications the behavior of the modeled system is significantly variable during time. The goal of the paper is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Luigi Portinale