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High-fidelity numerical simulations of partial differential equations (PDEs) given a restricted computational budget can significantly limit the number of parameter configurations considered and/or time window evaluated for modeling a given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-04 Paolo Conti , Mengwu Guo , Andrea Manzoni , Attilio Frangi , Steven L. Brunton , J. Nathan Kutz

In this paper we analyze the effect of two modelling approaches for supply planning problems under uncertainty: two-stage stochastic programming (SP) and robust optimization (RO). The comparison between the two approaches is performed…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Francesca Maggioni , Florian Potra , Marida Bertocchi

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Shane A. McQuarrie , Anirban Chaudhuri , Karen E. Willcox , Mengwu Guo

The computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has been improved by using surrogate models such as Gaussian processes (GP). In one such promising framework the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Marko Järvenpää , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

This article proposes an artificial data generating algorithm that is simple and easy to customize. The fundamental concept is to perform random permutation of Monte Carlo generated random numbers which conform to the unconditional…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-17 A. Christian Silva , Fernando F. Ferreira

Optimization plays an important role in chemical engineering, impacting cost-effectiveness, resource utilization, product quality, and process sustainability metrics. This chapter broadly focuses on data-driven optimization, particularly,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-12-19 Mathias Neufang , Emma Pajak , Damien van de Berg , Ye Seol Lee , Ehecatl Antonio del Rio Chanona

A machine-learning-based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (e.g., random forests, LASSO)…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2017-06-02 Sumeet Trehan , Kevin Carlberg , Louis J. Durlofsky

This paper proposes a reformulation of the scenario-based two-stage unit commitment problem under uncertainty that allows finding unit-commitment plans that perform reasonably well both in expectation and for the worst case realization of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-06-21 Ignacio Blanco , Juan M. Morales

Diffusion kernels over graphs have been widely utilized as effective tools in various applications due to their ability to accurately model the flow of information through nodes and edges. However, there is a notable gap in the literature…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-15 Giuseppe Alessio D'Inverno , Kylian Ajavon , Simone Brugiapaglia

The development of surrogate models to study uncertainties in hydrologic systems requires significant effort in the development of sampling strategies and forward model simulations. Furthermore, in applications where prediction time is…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-01-19 Chen Chen , Clint Dawson , Eirik Valseth

Stochastic Petri Nets (SPNs) are an increasingly popular tool of choice for modeling discrete-event dynamics in areas such as epidemiology and systems biology, yet their parameter estimation remains challenging in general and in particular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Bright Kwaku Manu , Trevor Reckell , Beckett Sterner , Petar Jevtic

Surrogate neural network-based models have been lately trained and used in a variety of science and engineering applications where the number of evaluations of a target function is limited by execution time. In cell phone camera systems,…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-06-29 Shantanu Shahane , Erman Guleryuz , Diab W Abueidda , Allen Lee , Joe Liu , Xin Yu , Raymond Chiu , Seid Koric , Narayana R Aluru , Placid M Ferreira

We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-01 Timur Takhtaganov , Juliane Müller

Solving complex problems requires continuous effort in developing theory and practice to cope with larger, more difficult scenarios. Working with surrogates is normal for creating a proxy that realistically models the problem into the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Tomohiro Harada , Enrique Alba , Gabriel Luque

In this contribution we propose a data-driven surrogate model for the prediction of magnetic stray fields in two-dimensional random micro-heterogeneous materials. Since data driven models require thousands of training data sets, FEM…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-04-11 Rainer Niekamp , Johanna Niemann , Maximilian Reichel , Hongbin Zhang , Jörg Schröder

Several methods have been proposed in the literature to solve reliability-based optimization problems, where failure probabilities are design constraints. However, few methods address the problem of life-cycle cost or risk optimization,…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-09 H. M. Kroetz , M. Moustapha , A. T. Beck , B. Sudret

Thanks to computing power increase, the certification and the conception of complex systems relies more and more on simulation. To this end, predictive codes are needed, which have generally to be evaluated in a huge number of input points.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-06 Sophie Marque-Pucheu , Guillaume Perrin , Josselin Garnier

Bayesian Optimization is a popular tool for tuning algorithms in automatic machine learning (AutoML) systems. Current state-of-the-art methods leverage Random Forests or Gaussian processes to build a surrogate model that predicts algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-08 Jeroen van Hoof , Joaquin Vanschoren

Chaotic systems pose fundamental challenges for data-driven dynamics discovery, as small modeling errors lead to exponentially growing trajectory discrepancies. Since exact long-term prediction is unattainable, it is natural to ask what a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Joon-Hyuk Ko , Andrus Giraldo , Deok-Sun Lee

Engineering disciplines often rely on extensive simulations to ensure that structures are designed to withstand harsh conditions while avoiding over-engineering for unlikely scenarios. Assessments such as Serviceability Limit State (SLS)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Vegard Flovik , Sebastian Winter , Christian Agrell