Related papers: An ensemble Kushner-Stratonovich-Poisson filter fo…
A new algorithm is presented for reconstructing stochastic nonlinear dynamical models from noisy time-series data. The approach is analytical; consequently, the resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model…
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
The number of resident space objects is rising at an alarming rate. Mega-constellations and breakup events are proliferating in most orbital regimes, and safe navigation is becoming increasingly problematic. It is important to be able to…
This article discusses a partially adapted particle filter for estimating the likelihood of a nonlinear structural econometric state space models whose state transition density cannot be expressed in closed form. The filter generates the…
Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…
The work concerns the nonlinear filtering problem for a class of multiscale McKean-Vlasov stochastic systems. First of all, by a Poisson equation we prove that the solution of the slow part for a multiscale system weakly converges to the…
Nonlinear Bayesian update for a prior ensemble is proposed to extend traditional ensemble Kalman filtering to settings characterized by non-Gaussian priors and nonlinear measurement operators. In this framework, the observed component is…
In this paper, an alternative approximation to the innovation method is introduced for the parameter estimation of diffusion processes from partial and noisy observations. This is based on a convergent approximation to the first two…
Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…
We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…
This paper studies the distributed state estimation problem for a class of discrete-time stochastic systems with nonlinear uncertain dynamics over time-varying topologies of sensor networks. An extended state vector consisting of the…
We introduce a predictor-corrector discretisation scheme for the numerical integration of a class of stochastic differential equations and prove that it converges with weak order 1.0. The key feature of the new scheme is that it builds up…
In this article we consider likelihood-based estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov (POMV) diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, using the…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…
State-space models can be used to incorporate subject knowledge on the underlying dynamics of a time series by the introduction of a latent Markov state-process. A user can specify the dynamics of this process together with how the state…
The partially observed linear Gaussian system of stochastic differential equations with low noise in observations is considered. A kernel-type estimators are used for estimation of the quadratic variation of the derivative of the limit of…
Non linear regression models are a standard tool for modeling real phenomena, with several applications in machine learning, ecology, econometry... Estimating the parameters of the model has garnered a lot of attention during many years. We…
A recent reformulation [1] of the problem of Coulomb gases in the presence of a dynamical dielectric medium showed that finite temperature simulations of such systems can be accomplished on the basis of completely local Hamiltonians on a…
The classical sparse parameter identification methods are usually based on the iterative basis selection such as greedy algorithms, or the numerical optimization of regularized cost functions such as LASSO and Bayesian posterior probability…
Stochastic filtering is defined as the estimation of a partially observed dynamical system. A massive scientific and computational effort is dedicated to the development of numerical methods for approximating the solution of the filtering…