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We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-01 Timur Takhtaganov , Juliane Müller

Simulating sample correlation matrices is important in many areas of statistics. Approaches such as generating Gaussian data and finding their sample correlation matrix or generating random uniform $[-1,1]$ deviates as pairwise correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-09 Johanna Hardin , Stephan Ramon Garcia , David Golan

The Log-Gaussian Cox Process is a commonly used model for the analysis of spatial point patterns. Fitting this model is difficult because of its doubly-stochastic property, i.e., it is an hierarchical combination of a Poisson process at the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-05 Ming Teng , Farouk S. Nathoo , Timothy D. Johnson

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-08 Ben Swallow , David A. Rand , Giorgos Minas

In machine learning, knowing the impact of a given datum on model training is a fundamental task referred to as Data Valuation. Building on previous works from the literature, we have designed a novel canonical decomposition allowing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Clément Bénesse , Patrick Mesana , Athénaïs Gautier , Sébastien Gambs

Approximations to Gaussian processes based on inducing variables, combined with variational inference techniques, enable state-of-the-art sparse approaches to infer GPs at scale through mini batch-based learning. In this work, we address…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-21 Gia-Lac Tran , Dimitrios Milios , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone

In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Ali Mohammad-Djafari , Olivier Feron

Conventional variational autoencoders fail in modeling correlations between data points due to their use of factorized priors. Amortized Gaussian process inference through GP-VAEs has led to significant improvements in this regard, but is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-25 Metod Jazbec , Matthew Ashman , Vincent Fortuin , Michael Pearce , Stephan Mandt , Gunnar Rätsch

A fully Bayesian treatment of complicated predictive models (such as deep neural networks) would enable rigorous uncertainty quantification and the automation of higher-level tasks including model selection. However, the intractability of…

Gaussian process regression is a widespread tool used to mitigate stellar correlated noise in radial velocity time series. It is particularly useful to search for and determine the properties of signals induced by small-size, low-mass…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2019-08-21 M. Damasso , M. Pinamonti , G. Scandariato , A. Sozzetti

Probabilistic machine learning models are distinguished by their ability to integrate prior knowledge of noise statistics, smoothness parameters, and training data uncertainty. A common approach involves modeling data with Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-31 Cristian A. Galvis-Florez , Ahmad Farooq , Simo Särkkä

Multi-task learning requires accurate identification of the correlations between tasks. In real-world time-series, tasks are rarely perfectly temporally aligned; traditional multi-task models do not account for this and subsequent errors in…

We introduce a technique for gravitational-wave analysis, where Gaussian process regression is used to emulate the strain spectrum of a stochastic background using population-synthesis simulations. This leads to direct Bayesian inference on…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2017-05-10 Stephen R. Taylor , Joseph Simon , Laura Sampson

Timing noise in pulsars is often modelled with a Fourier-basis Gaussian process that follows a power law with periodic boundary conditions on the observation time, $T_\mathrm{span}$. However the actual noise processes can extend well below…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2023-06-14 Michael J. Keith , Iuliana C. Niţu

We propose a new framework for imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian nonparametric setting based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations. We derive a nonparametric model of monotonic functions that allows for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-26 Ivan Ustyuzhaninov , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Carl Henrik Ek , Neill D. F. Campbell

Gaussian Processes (GPs) has experienced tremendous success in geoscience in general and for bio-geophysical parameter retrieval in the last years. GPs constitute a solid Bayesian framework to formulate many function approximation problems…

The null hypothesis in Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) analyses includes assumptions about ensemble properties of pulsar time-correlated noise. These properties are encoded in prior probabilities for the amplitude and the spectral index of the…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-02-06 Boris Goncharov , Shubhit Sardana

Gaussian processes are now commonly used in dimensionality reduction approaches tailored to neuroscience, especially to describe changes in high-dimensional neural activity over time. As recording capabilities expand to include neuronal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-24 Evren Gokcen , Anna I. Jasper , Adam Kohn , Christian K. Machens , Byron M. Yu

Pulsars are known to display short-term variability. Recently, examples of longer-term emission variability have emerged that are often correlated with changes in the rotational properties of the pulsar. To further illuminate this…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2016-01-27 P. R. Brook , A. Karastergiou , S. Johnston , M. Kerr , R. M. Shannon , S. J. Roberts

Mechanistic simulation models are inverted against observations in order to gain inference on modeled processes. However, with the increasing ability to collect high resolution observations, these observations represent more patterns of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-20 Thomas Wutzler