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Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Alejandro Cholaquidis , Emilien Joly , Leonardo Moreno

Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-02 Anqi Liu , Brian D. Ziebart

The doubly-robust (DR) estimator is popular for evaluating causal effects in observational studies and is often perceived as more desirable than inverse probability weighting (IPW) or outcome modeling alone because it provides extra…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Chengxin Yang , Laine E. Thomas , Fan Li

Linear regression is ubiquitous in statistical analysis. It is well understood that conflicting sources of information may contaminate the inference when the classical normality of errors is assumed. The contamination caused by the light…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-13 Philippe Gagnon , Alain Desgagné , Mylène Bédard

We propose a general approach to construct weighted likelihood estimating equations with the aim of obtain robust estimates. The weight, attached to each score contribution, is evaluated by comparing the statistical data depth at the model…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-16 Claudio Agostinelli

In this paper, we discuss the application of extreme value theory in the context of stationary $\beta$-mixing sequences that belong to the Fr\'echet domain of attraction. In particular, we propose a methodology to construct bias-corrected…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-24 Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Armelle Guillou

This paper presents an integrated perspective on robustness in regression. Specifically, we examine the relationship between traditional outlier-resistant robust estimation and robust optimization, which focuses on parameter estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-16 Akifumi Okuno

A common approach for modeling extremes, such as peak flow or high temperatures, is the three-parameter Generalized Extreme-Value distribution. This is typically fit to extreme observations, here defined as maxima over disjoint blocks. This…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-07 Nathan Huet , Ilaria Prosdocimi

We derive the tail inequalities between two random variables starting from inequalities between its moment, or more generally between its Lebesgue-Riesz norms, which holds true on certain sets of parameters. We consider some applications…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-06 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-30 Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Laloë , Cambyse Pakzad

We consider the estimation of large covariance and precision matrices from high-dimensional sub-Gaussian or heavier-tailed observations with slowly decaying temporal dependence. The temporal dependence is allowed to be long-range so with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-23 Hai Shu , Bin Nan

This study examines the varying coefficient model in tail index regression. The varying coefficient model is an efficient semiparametric model that avoids the curse of dimensionality when including large covariates in the model. In fact,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-12 Koki Momoki , Takuma Yoshida

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the tail index of distributions with heavy, Pareto-type tails for dependent data, that is of interest in the areas of finance, insurance, environmental monitoring and teletraffic analysis. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-05-25 Stilian A Stoev , George Michailidis

In econometrics, the Efficient Market Hypothesis posits that asset prices reflect all available information in the market. Several empirical investigations show that market efficiency drops when it undergoes extreme events. Many models for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-02 Junshu Jiang , Jordan Richards , Raphaël Huser , David Bolin

Unmeasured confounding and selection bias are often of concern in observational studies and may invalidate a causal analysis if not appropriately accounted for. Under outcome-dependent sampling, a latent factor that has causal effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Kendrick Qijun Li , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

This paper focuses on rare events associated with the tail probabilities of the extremal eigenvalues in the $\beta$-Jacobi ensemble, which plays a critical role in both multivariate statistical analysis and statistical physics. Under the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-26 Yutao Ma , Siyu Wang

A network evolution with predicted tail and extremal indices of PageRank and the Max-Linear Model used as node influence indices in random graphs is considered. The tail index shows a heaviness of the distribution tail. The extremal index…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Natalia Markovich

In this paper we develop a novel inferential approach based on geometric records for estimating the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions. We construct a maximum likelihood estimator for the Pareto model and establish its strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Martín Alcalde , Raúl Gouet , Miguel Lafuente , F. Javier López , Gerardo Sanz

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for investigating causal relationships, with comparisons of potential outcomes under different treatment groups used to estimate treatment effects. However, outcomes with heavy-tailed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-09 Hongzi Li , Wei Ma , Yingying Ma , Hanzhong Liu

The paper proposes some robust estimators of the finite population mean. Such estimators are particularly suitable in the presence of some outlying observations. Included as special cases of our general result are robust versions of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Malay Ghosh
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