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We propose a variational method to solve all three estimation problems for nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems: prediction, filtering, and smoothing. Our new approach is based upon a proper choice of cost function, termed the {\it…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Gregory L. Eyink

Nonlinear adaptive filtering allows for modeling of some additional aspects of a general system and usually relies on highly complex algorithms, such as those based on the Volterra series. Through the use of the Kronecker product and some…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-03-02 Felipe C. Pinheiro , Cássio G. Lopes

We consider a utility-maximization problem in a general semimartingale financial model, subject to constraints on the number of shares held in each risky asset. These constraints are modeled by predictable convex-set-valued processes whose…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-02-25 Kasper Larsen , Gordan Žitković

We present a numerically efficient approach for learning a risk-neutral measure for paths of simulated spot and option prices up to a finite horizon under convex transaction costs and convex trading constraints. This approach can then be…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-15 Hans Buehler , Phillip Murray , Mikko S. Pakkanen , Ben Wood

We focus on a behavioral model, that has been recently proposed in the literature, whose rational can be traced back to the Half-Full/Half-Empty glass metaphor. More precisely, we generalize the Half-Full/Half-Empty approach to the context…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-19 Francesco Cesarone , Massimiliano Corradini , Lorenzo Lampariello , Jessica Riccioni

We consider a class of optimal control problems, with finite or infinite horizon, for a continuous-time Markov chain with finite state space. In this case, the control process affects the transition rates. We suppose that the controlled…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-19 Fulvia Confortola , Marco Fuhrman

We combine conditional state density construction with an extension of the Scenario Approach for stochastic Model Predictive Control to nonlinear systems to yield a novel particle-based formulation of stochastic nonlinear output-feedback…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Martin A. Sehr , Robert R. Bitmead

In this work, we study a dynamic portfolio optimization problem related to pairs trading, which is an investment strategy that matches a long position in one security with a short position in another security with similar characteristics.…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-24 Sühan Altay , Katia Colaneri , Zehra Eksi

Inference for partially observed Markov process models has been a longstanding methodological challenge with many scientific and engineering applications. Iterated filtering algorithms maximize the likelihood function for partially observed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-26 Edward L. Ionides , Anindya Bhadra , Yves Atchadé , Aaron King

This paper is concerned with portfolio selection for an investor with power utility in multi-asset financial markets in a rough stochastic environment. We investigate Merton's portfolio problem for different multivariate Volterra models,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Florian Aichinger , Sascha Desmettre

This paper extends the utility maximization literature by combining partial information and (robust) regulatory constraints. Partial information is characterized by the fact that the stock price itself is observable by the optimizing…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-23 Nicole Bäuerle , An Chen

This paper studies a robust portfolio optimization problem under the multi-factor volatility model introduced by Christoffersen et al. (2009). The optimal strategy is derived analytically under the worst-case scenario with or without…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-16 Ben-Zhang Yang , Xiaoping Lu , Guiyuan Ma , Song-Ping Zhu

The question addressed in this paper is the performance of the optimal strategy, and the impact of partial information. The setting we consider is that of a stochastic asset price model where the trend follows an unobservable…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-10-14 Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed , Grégoire Loeper , Sofiene El Aoud , Frédéric Abergel

In this paper, we apply the nonlinear filtering theory to the estimation of the partially observed dynamics of anthracnose which is a phytopathology. The signal here is the inhibition rate and the observations are the fruit volume ant the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-07-05 David Jaurès Fotsa Mbogne

By employing the technique of enlargement of filtrations, we demonstrate how to incorporate information about the future trend of the stochastic interest rate process into a financial model. By modeling the interest rate as an affine…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-25 Bernardo D'Auria , José Antonio Salmerón

In this paper, we study an intertemporal utility maximization problem in which an investor chooses consumption and portfolio strategies in the presence of a stochastic factor and a no-borrowing constraint. In the spirit of the Kim-Omberg…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Giorgio Ferrari , Tim Niclas Schütz

We investigate a continuous-time investment-consumption problem with model uncertainty in a general diffusion-based market with random model coefficients. We assume that a power utility investor is ambiguity-averse, with the preference to…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-04 Len Patrick Dominic M. Garces , Yang Shen

Despite the numerous applications that may be expeditiously modelled by counting processes, stochastic filtering strategies involving Poisson-type observations still remain somewhat poorly developed. In this work, we propose a Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-09 Mamatha Venugopal , Ram Mohan Vasu , Debasish Roy

Long term optimal investment problems are studied in a factor model with matrix valued state variables. Explicit parameter restrictions are obtained under which, for an isoelastic investor, the finite horizon value function and optimal…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-09-01 Scott Robertson , Hao Xing

We consider a continuous-time model for inventory management with Markov modulated non-stationary demands. We introduce active learning by assuming that the state of the world is unobserved and must be inferred by the manager. We also…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-06-28 Erhan Bayraktar , Mike Ludkovski
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