Related papers: Predictability Horizon of Oceanic Rogue Waves
We consider instability and localized patterns arising from long wave-short wave (LWSW) resonance in the non-integrable regime numerically. We study the stability and instability of elliptic-function periodic waves with respect to…
The mechanism that causes an interdecadal oscillation in a coarse resolution sector ocean model forced by mixed boundary conditions is studied. The oscillation is characterized by large fluctuations in convective activity and air/sea heat…
We establish new Carleman estimates for the wave equation, which we then apply to derive novel observability inequalities for a general class of linear wave equations. The main features of these inequalities are that (a) they apply to a…
In oceanography, modeling wave fields requires the use of statistical tools capable of handling the circular nature of the {data measurements}. An important issue in ocean wave analysis is the study of height and direction waves, being…
The impact of shoaling on linear water waves is well-known, but it has only been recently found to significantly amplify both the intensity and frequency of rogue waves in nonlinear irregular wave trains atop coastal shoals. At least…
We study the predictability of turbulent velocity signals using probabilistic analog-forecasting. Here, predictability is defined by the accuracy of forecasts and the associated uncertainties. We study the Gledzer--Ohkitani--Yamada (GOY)…
One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards…
Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate was obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. In seasonal to interannual time scales, the predictability is low in lower…
We study the (1+1) focussing nonlinear Schr\"{o}dinger equation for an initial condition with compactly-supported parabolic profile and phase depending quadratically on the spatial coordinate. In the absence of dispersion, using the natural…
Rogue waves in birefringent optical fibers are analyzed within the framework of the coupled nonlinear Schr\"odinger (CNLS) system. The generation of rogue waves is frequently associated with modulation instability (MI). It is commonly…
Predicting ocean wave behavior is challenging due to the difficulty in choosing suitable numerical models among many with varying capabilities. This review examines the development and performance of numerical wave models in coastal…
The shoaling of surface gravity waves has been acknowledged as a mechanism of rogue wave formation. This problem is generally reduced to water waves passing over a step, but non-equilibrium physics allows finite slopes to be considered.…
Solutions of a system of wave equations are constructed for both homogeneous and inhomogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions at every regularity level. We prove that boundary observability, and thus boundary exact controllability, at some…
We present a spatio-temporal mechanism for producing 2D optical rogue waves in the presence of a turbulent state with creation, interaction and annihilation of optical vortices. Spatially periodic structures with bound phase lose stability…
Extreme-event predictability in turbulence is strongly state dependent, yet event-by-event predictability horizons are difficult to quantify without access to governing equations or costly perturbation ensembles. Here we train an…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
Accurate ocean forecasting systems are vital for understanding marine dynamics, which play a crucial role in environmental management and climate adaptation strategies. Traditional numerical solvers, while effective, are computationally…
Stabilization of a class of time-varying parabolic equations with uncertain input data using Receding Horizon Control (RHC) is investigated. The diffusion coefficient and the initial function are prescribed as random fields. We consider…
A stochastic approach is implemented to address the problem of a marine structure exposed to water wave impacts. The focus is on (i) the average frequency of wave impacts, and (ii) the related probability distribution of impact kinematic…
Predictability is an emerging metric that quantifies the highest possible prediction accuracy for a given time series, being widely utilized in assessing known prediction algorithms and characterizing intrinsic regularities in human…