Related papers: Infinite Structured Hidden Semi-Markov Models

Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models provide elegant methods for discovering underlying latent features within a data set, but inference in such models can be slow. We exploit the fact that completely random measures, which commonly used…

Bayesian network models with latent variables are widely used in statistics and machine learning. In this paper we provide a complete algebraic characterization of Bayesian network models with latent variables when the observed variables…

Bayesian statistical models allow us to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about our uncertainty, but there is a need for better procedures to accurately encode its complexity. One way to do so is through compositional…

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…

In this work the issue of Bayesian inference for stationary data is addressed. Therefor a parametrization of a statistically suitable subspace of the the shift-ergodic probability measures on a Cartesian product of some finite state space…

This work proposes a multi-agent filtering algorithm over graphs for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs), which can be used for sequential state estimation or for tracking opinion formation over dynamic social networks. We show that…

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Implicit stochastic models, where the data-generation distribution is intractable but sampling is possible, are ubiquitous in the natural sciences. The models typically have free parameters that need to be inferred from data collected in…

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

Defining the number of latent factors has been one of the most challenging problems in factor analysis. Infinite factor models offer a solution to this problem by applying increasing shrinkage on the columns of factor loading matrices, thus…

Nonparametric Bayesian models are used routinely as flexible and powerful models of complex data. Many times, a statistician may have additional informative beliefs about data distribution of interest, e.g., its mean or subset components,…

Literatures in state space models focus on parametric inference and prediction, which fail if the state space model is not fully specified and the maximum likelihood estimation does not work. In this paper, we assume the state transition…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…

Bayesian neural network posterior distributions have a great number of modes that correspond to the same network function. The abundance of such modes can make it difficult for approximate inference methods to do their job. Recent work has…

Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…

We define an evolving in-time Bayesian neural network called a Hidden Markov Neural Network, which addresses the crucial challenge in time-series forecasting and continual learning: striking a balance between adapting to new data and…

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for machine learning. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we introduce a new class of…

We study sequential Bayesian inference in stochastic kinetic models with latent factors. Assuming continuous observation of all the reactions, our focus is on joint inference of the unknown reaction rates and the dynamic latent states,…

Recommender systems are widely used for suggesting books, education materials, and products to users by exploring their behaviors. In reality, users' preferences often change over time, leading to studies on time-dependent recommender…