Related papers: The Mythical Swing Voter
Many political surveys rely on post-stratification, raking, or related weighting adjustments to align respondents with the target population. But when respondents differ from nonrespondents on the outcome itself (nonignorable nonresponse),…
Sub-sampling is a common and often effective method to deal with the computational challenges of large datasets. However, for most statistical models, there is no well-motivated approach for drawing a non-uniform subsample. We show that the…
Accurate modeling of opinion dynamics has the potential to help us understand polarization and what makes effective political discourse possible or impossible. Here, we use physics-based methods to model the evolution of political opinions…
In this paper, the authors first provide an overview of two major developments on complex survey data analysis: the empirical likelihood methods and statistical inference with non-probability survey samples, and highlight the important…
Political polarization, fueled by public discourse and echo chambers, threatens the foundation of democratic elections. However, traditional one-dimensional opinion models -- assuming ``support for one party equals opposition to another''…
The recent proliferation of computers and the internet have opened new opportunities for collecting and processing data. However, such data are often obtained without a well-planned probability survey design. Such non-probability based…
To many statisticians and citizens, the outcome of the most recent U.S. presidential election represents a failure of data-driven methods on the grandest scale. This impression has led to much debate and discussion about how the election…
Public opinion polling is usually done by random sampling from the entire population, treating individual opinions as independent. In the real world, individuals' opinions are often correlated, e.g., among friends in a social network. In…
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…
Common election poll reporting is often misleading as sample uncertainty is addressed insufficiently or not covered at all. Furthermore, main interest usually lies beyond the simple party shares. For a more comprehensive opinion poll and…
Understanding the nature of strategic voting is the holy grail of social choice theory, where game-theory, social science and recently computational approaches are all applied in order to model the incentives and behavior of voters. In a…
Gorman and Bedrick (2019) argued for using random splits rather than standard splits in NLP experiments. We argue that random splits, like standard splits, lead to overly optimistic performance estimates. We can also split data in biased or…
We present a new strategic voting model where we use uncertainty representation to model preferences. Specifically, we use probability sets as uncertainty representations, together with lower and upper expected utility gains to take…
Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only…
Despite the prevalence of voting systems in the real world there is no consensus among researchers of how people vote strategically, even in simple voting settings. This paper addresses this gap by comparing different approaches that have…
The increasing data availability and imported analyzing tools from computer science and physical science have sharply changed traditional methodologies of social sciences, leading to a new branch named computational socioeconomics that…
A quick count seeks to estimate the voting trends of an election and communicate them to the population on the evening of the same day of the election. In quick counts, the sampling is based on a stratified design of polling stations.…
What does it mean to model a person, not merely to predict isolated responses, preferences, or behaviors, but to simulate how an individual interprets events, forms opinions, makes judgments, and acts consistently across contexts? This…
Voting is a very general method of preference aggregation. A voting rule takes as input every voter's vote (typically, a ranking of the alternatives), and produces as output either just the winning alternative or a ranking of the…
Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n=861), it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective…