Related papers: Barycentres and Hurricane Trajectories
In this paper, we propose a new method to compute the barycenter of large weighted graphs endowed with probability measures on their nodes. We suppose that the edge weights are distances between the nodes and that the probability measure on…
A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane…
People increasingly use microblogging platforms such as Twitter during natural disasters and emergencies. Research studies have revealed the usefulness of the data available on Twitter for several disaster response tasks. However, making…
The purpose of our research deals with the description of a methodology for the definition of specific weather sequences and their influence on the energy needs of HVAC system. We'll apply the method on the tropical Reunion Island. The…
This, fourth paper of the series (see previous papers in Refs.[1-3]) derives approximate equations for future numerical studies of initial evolution of hurricanes, develops new analytical models of hurricane genesis and maturing, and…
We compare classical and Bayesian methods for fitting the poisson distribution to the number of hurricanes making landfall on sections of the US coastline.
We study in this paper a variant of Wasserstein barycenter problem, which we refer to as tree-Wasserstein barycenter, by leveraging a specific class of ground metrics, namely tree metrics, for Wasserstein distance. Drawing on the tree…
In this paper we report on a methodology to model pedestrian behaviours whilst aggregate variables are concerned, with potential applications to different situations, such as evacuating a building in emergency events. The approach consists…
We perform an objective change-point analysis on 106 years of historical hurricane number data. The algorithm we use looks at all possible combinations of change-points and compares them in terms of the variances of the differences between…
Ancient and medieval harbours connected via navigable and terrestrial routes could be interpreted as elements of complex traffic networks. Based on evidence from three projects in Priority Programme 1630 (Fossa Carolina, Inland harbours in…
Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of…
The generation of synthetic tropical cyclone(TC) tracks for risk assessment is a critical application of preparedness for the impacts of climate change and disaster relief, particularly in North America. Insurance companies use these…
In previous work, we have shown how to combine long and short historical baselines to make predictions of future hurricane numbers. We now ask: how should such combinations change if we are interested in predicting the future number of…
From the climate system to the effect of the internet on society, chaotic systems appear to have a significant role in our future. Here a method of statistical learning for a class of chaotic systems is described along with underlying…
In this paper, we model the trajectory of sea vessels and provide a service that predicts in near-real time the position of any given vessel in 4', 10', 20' and 40' time intervals. We explore the necessary tradeoffs between accuracy,…
We present a stochastic algorithm to compute the barycenter of a set of probability distributions under the Wasserstein metric from optimal transport. Unlike previous approaches, our method extends to continuous input distributions and…
We investigate the statistics of orientation of small, neutrally buoyant, spherical tracers whose center of mass is displaced from the geometrical center. If appropriate-sized particles are considered, a linear relation can be derived…
We develop a new quantifier for forward time uncertainty for trajectories that are solutions of models generated from data sets. Our uncertainty quantifier is defined on the phase space in which the trajectories evolve and we show that it…
This paper demonstrates how principle component analysis can be used to determine the distinct factors that house the terms that explain the variance among the co-dependent variables and how non-response analysis can be applied to model the…
In light of intense hurricane activity along the U.S. Atlantic coast, attention has turned to understanding both the economic impact and behaviour of these storms. The compound Poisson-lognormal process has been proposed as a model for…