English
Related papers

Related papers: Learning the ergodic decomposition

200 papers

When a robot encounters a novel object, how should it respond$\unicode{x2014}$what data should it collect$\unicode{x2014}$so that it can find the object in the future? In this work, we present a method for learning image features of an…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Allison Pinosky , Todd D. Murphey

We study a sequential-learning model featuring a network of naive agents with Gaussian information structures. Agents apply a heuristic rule to aggregate predecessors' actions. They weigh these actions according the strengths of their…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-05 Krishna Dasaratha , Kevin He

We study a social learning model in which agents iteratively update their beliefs about the true state of the world using private signals and the beliefs of other agents in a non-Bayesian manner. Some agents are stubborn, meaning they…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-09-21 Daniel Vial , Vijay Subramanian

In this work, we demonstrate the Empirical Bayes approach to learning a Dynamic Bayesian Network. By starting with several point estimates of structure and weights, we can use a data-driven prior to subsequently obtain a model to quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Vyacheslav Kungurtsev , Apaar , Aarya Khandelwal , Parth Sandeep Rastogi , Bapi Chatterjee , Jakub Mareček

We present the observation that the process of stochastic model predictive control can be formulated in the framework of iterated function systems. The latter has a rich ergodic theory that can be applied to study the system's long-run…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-10-14 Vyacheslav Kungurtsev , Jakub Marecek , Robert Shorten

We analyze boundedly rational updating from aggregate statistics in a model with binary actions and binary states. Agents each take an irreversible action in sequence after observing the unordered set of previous actions. Each agent first…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Itai Arieli , Yakov Babichenko , Manuel Mueller-Frank

Existing methods for structure discovery in time series data construct interpretable, compositional kernels for Gaussian process regression models. While the learned Gaussian process model provides posterior mean and variance estimates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-22 David Janz , Brooks Paige , Tom Rainforth , Jan-Willem van de Meent , Frank Wood

Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-09 John Parslow , Noel Cressie , Edward P. Campbell , Emlyn Jones , Lawrence Murray

Learning is a fundamental characteristic of living systems, enabling them to comprehend their environments and make informed decisions. These decision-making processes are inherently influenced by available information about their…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-04-21 Arnab Barua , Haralampos Hatzikirou , Sumiyoshi Abe

We consider a group of Bayesian agents who are each given an independent signal about an unknown state of the world, and proceed to communicate with each other. We study the question of asymptotic learning: do agents learn the state of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-14 Elchanan Mossel , Allan Sly , Omer Tamuz

Perceptions of political bias in the media are formed directly, through the independent consumption of the published outputs of a media organization, and indirectly, through observing the collective responses of political allies and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-06-28 Nicholas Kah Yean Low , Andrew Melatos

We present a recurrent agent who perceives surroundings through a series of discrete fixations. At each timestep, the agent imagines a variety of plausible scenes consistent with the fixation history. The next fixation is planned using…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-04-02 Samrudhdhi B. Rangrej , James J. Clark

We develop a methodology to learn finitely generated random iterated function systems from time-series of partial observations using delay embeddings. We obtain a minimal model representation for the observed dynamics, using a hidden…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-08-20 Emilia Gibson , Jeroen S. W. Lamb

Giving autonomous agents the ability to forecast their own outcomes and uncertainty will allow them to communicate their competencies and be used more safely. We accomplish this by using a learned world model of the agent system to forecast…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-20 Aastha Acharya , Rebecca Russell , Nisar R. Ahmed

Structure learning of Bayesian networks is an important problem that arises in numerous machine learning applications. In this work, we present a novel approach for learning the structure of Bayesian networks using the solution of an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-11-22 Tuhin Sahai , Stefan Klus , Michael Dellnitz

Bayesian network structure learning algorithms with limited data are being used in domains such as systems biology and neuroscience to gain insight into the underlying processes that produce observed data. Learning reliable networks from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-07-10 Diane Oyen , Terran Lane

We study a model of consensus decision making, in which a finite group of Bayesian agents has to choose between one of two courses of action. Each member of the group has a private and independent signal at his or her disposal, giving some…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-24 Elchanan Mossel , Omer Tamuz

The consistency of the Bayesian estimation of a parameter is shown for a class of ergodic discrete Markov chains. J.L. Doob's method was used, offered earlier for the i.i.d. situation. The result may be useful in the reliability theory for…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-27 A. I. Nurieva , A. Yu. Veretennikov

We consider a group of Bayesian agents who try to estimate a state of the world $\theta$ through interaction on a social network. Each agent $v$ initially receives a private measurement of $\theta$: a number $S_v$ picked from a Gaussian…

Applications · Statistics 2018-04-24 Elchanan Mossel , Noah Olsman , Omer Tamuz

There is a brief description of the probabilistic causal graph model for representing, reasoning with, and learning causal structure using Bayesian networks. It is then argued that this model is closely related to how humans reason with and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Scott B. Morris , Doug Cork , Richard E. Neapolitan