Related papers: Predictive Capabilities of Avalanche Models for So…
We develop and discuss the properties of a new class of lattice-based avalanche models of solar flares. These models are readily amenable to a relatively unambiguous physical interpretation in terms of slow twisting of a coronal loop. They…
Accurate and reliable predictions of solar flares are essential due to their potentially significant impact on Earth and space-based infrastructure. Although deep learning models have shown notable predictive capabilities in this domain,…
Recently, there has been growing interest in the use of machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares. Initial efforts along these lines employed comparatively simple models, correlating features extracted from observations of…
Data assimilation techniques, developed in the last two decades mainly for weather prediction, produce better forecasts by taking advantage of both theoretical/numerical models and real-time observations. In this paper, we explore the…
Avalanche models running in a self-organized critical regime have proven powerful in reproducing the power-law distributions and scale invariance that characterize the statistical properties of solar flares. They are often interpreted as…
The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…
Space weather phenomena such as solar flares, have massive destructive power when reaches certain amount of magnitude. Such high magnitude solar flare event can interfere space-earth radio communications and neutralize space-earth…
We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…
Solar flares are intense eruptive events caused by the rapid release of magnetic energy, often impacting Earth's space environment through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Accurate flare prediction is critical for space…
Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather.…
Operational flare forecasting aims at providing predictions that can be used to make decisions, typically at a daily scale, about the space weather impacts of flare occurrence. This study shows that video-based deep learning can be used for…
We developed a solar flare prediction model using a deep neural network (DNN), named Deep Flare Net (DeFN). The model can calculate the probability of flares occurring in the following 24 h in each active region, which is used to determine…
The degree of predictability of large avalanche events in the directed sandpile model is studied. A waiting time based prediction strategy which exploits the local anticorrelation of large events is discussed. With this strategy we show…
Solar flares are caused by magnetic eruptions in active regions (ARs) on the surface of the sun. These events can have significant impacts on human activity, many of which can be mitigated with enough advance warning from good forecasts. To…
We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…
A number of methods of flare prediction rely on classification of physical characteristics of an active region, in particular optical classification of sunspots, and historical rates of flaring for a given classification. However these…
Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…
Solar flares are among the most powerful and dynamic events in the solar system, resulting from the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere. These energetic bursts of electromagnetic radiation can release up to…
Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…
Solar flares, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, have a profound impact on both the Earth's space environment and human activities. As a result, accurate solar flare prediction has emerged as a central topic in…