Related papers: On Individual Risk
We discuss recent work for causal inference and predictive robustness in a unifying way. The key idea relies on a notion of probabilistic invariance or stability: it opens up new insights for formulating causality as a certain risk…
This study has the purpose of addressing four questions that lie at the base of the probability theory and statistics, and includes two main steps. As first, we conduct the textual analysis of the most significant works written by eminent…
This chapter presents probability logic as a rationality framework for human reasoning under uncertainty. Selected formal-normative aspects of probability logic are discussed in the light of experimental evidence. Specifically, probability…
The Improbability Scale (IS) is proposed as a way of communicating to the general public the improbability (and by implication, the probability) of events predicted as the result of scientific research. Through the use of the Improbability…
Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calculations often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such…
We study possibilities for semantic and syntactic rigidity, i.e., the rigidity with respect to automorphism group and with respect to definable closure. Variations of rigidity and their degrees are studied in general case, for special…
Positivity, the assumption that every unique combination of confounding variables that occurs in a population has a non-zero probability of an action, can be further delineated as deterministic positivity and stochastic positivity. Here, we…
In this article the idea of random variables over the set theoretic universe is investigated. We explore what it can mean for a random set to have a specific probability of belonging to an antecedently given class of sets.
We investigate the quantification of demographic risk in a framework consistent with the market-consistent valuation imposed by Solvency II. We provide compact formulas for evaluating inflows and outflows of a portfolio of insurance…
As the use of differential privacy (DP) becomes widespread, the development of effective tools for reasoning about the privacy guarantee becomes increasingly critical. In pursuit of this goal, we demonstrate novel relationships between DP…
Many real-world situations of ethical relevance, in particular those of large-scale social choice such as mitigating climate change, involve not only many agents whose decisions interact in complicated ways, but also various forms of…
There is available an ever-increasing variety of procedures for managing uncertainty. These methods are discussed in the literature of artificial intelligence, as well as in the literature of philosophy of science. Heretofore these methods…
These are lecture notes written at the University of Zurich during spring 2014 and spring 2015. The first part of the notes gives an introduction to probability theory. It explains the notion of random events and random variables,…
A review of various definitions of "compatibility" expressed in terms of ordinary probability, and a discussion of the occurrence of incompatibility (and the related phenomenon of interference) in non-quantal probabilistic systems.
We are now witnessing a rapid growth of a new part of group theory which has become known as "statistical group theory". A typical result in this area would say something like ``a random element (or a tuple of elements) of a group G has a…
For the classical mind, quantum mechanics is boggling enough; nevertheless more bizarre behavior could be imagined, thereby concentrating on propositional structures (empirical logics) that transcend the quantum domain. One can also…
The prominence and use of the concept of cyber risk has been rising in recent years. This paper presents empirical investigations focused on two important and distinct groups within the broad community of cyber-defense professionals and…
The aim of this paper is to show that the concept of probability is best understood by dividing this concept into two different types of probability, namely physical probability and analogical probability. Loosely speaking, a physical…
This paper empirically analyzes how individual characteristics are associated with risk aversion, loss aversion, time discounting, and present bias. To this end, we conduct a large-scale demographically representative survey across eight…
Risk control has become one of the major concern of financial institutions. The need for adequate statistical tools to measure and anticipate the amplitude of the potential moves of financial markets is clearly expressed, in particular for…