Related papers: Predictive Characterization of Mixtures of Markov …

Continuous-time Markov chains on non-negative integers can be used for modeling biological systems, population dynamics, and queueing models. Qualitative behaviors of birth-and-death models, typical examples of such one-dimensional…

The invariant measure is a fundamental object in the theory of Markov processes. In finite dimensions a Markov process is defined by transition rates of the corresponding stochastic matrix. The Markov tree theorem provides an explicit…

We address the problem of community detection in networks by introducing a general definition of Markov stability, based on the difference between the probability fluxes of a Markov chain on the network at different time scales. The…

We consider the fluctuations of a time-integrated particle current around an atypical value in a generic stochastic Markov process involving classical particles with two-site interaction and hardcore repulsion on a finite one-dimensional…

We consider Markov processes, which describe e.g. queueing network processes, in a random environment which influences the network by determining random breakdown of nodes, and the necessity of repair thereafter. Starting from an explicit…

Markov chain analysis is a key technique in formal verification. A practical obstacle is that all probabilities in Markov models need to be known. However, system quantities such as failure rates or packet loss ratios, etc. are often not --…

Many finite-state reversible Markov chains can be naturally decomposed into "projection" and "restriction" chains. In this paper we provide bounds on the total variation mixing times of the original chain in terms of the mixing properties…

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

We consider the problem of conditioning a Markov process on a rare event and of representing this conditioned process by a conditioning-free process, called the effective or driven process. The basic assumption is that the rare event used…

A continuous-time Markov process $X$ can be conditioned to be in a given state at a fixed time $T > 0$ using Doob's $h$-transform. This transform requires the typically intractable transition density of $X$. The effect of the $h$-transform…

A theory of symbolic dynamic systems with long-range correlations based on the consideration of the binary N-step Markov chains developed earlier in Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 110601 (2003) is generalized to the biased case (non equal numbers of…

Symbolic dynamics has proven to be an invaluable tool in analyzing the mechanisms that lead to unpredictability and random behavior in nonlinear dynamical systems. Surprisingly, a discrete partition of continuous state space can produce a…

Gibbs-type random probability measures and the exchangeable random partitions they induce represent an important framework both from a theoretical and applied point of view. In the present paper, motivated by species sampling problems, we…

Causal reversibility blends reversibility and causality for concurrent systems. It indicates that an action can be undone provided that all of its consequences have been undone already, thus making it possible to bring the system back to a…

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via…

There is a scalability gap between probabilistic and non-probabilistic verification. Probabilistic model checking tools are based either on explicit engines or on (Multi-Terminal) Binary Decision Diagrams. These structures are complemented…

We study the problem of characterizing the expected hitting times for a robust generalization of continuous-time Markov chains. This generalization is based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, and the models with which we work…

Finite mixtures are a flexible modeling tool for irregularly shaped densities and samples from heterogeneous populations. When modeling with mixtures using an exchangeable prior on the component features, the component labels are arbitrary…

We establish an abstract, effective, exponential large deviations type estimate for Markov systems satisfying a weaker form of mixing. We employ this result to derive such estimates, as well as a central limit theorem, for the skew product…

We formulate a probabilistic Markov property in discrete time under a dynamic risk framework with minimal assumptions. This is useful for recursive solutions to risk-sensitive versions of dynamic optimisation problems such as optimal…