Related papers: Instabilities in large economies: aggregate volati…
It is shown how the macroscopic non-equilibrium dynamics of a class of systems whose microscopic stochastic dynamics involves disordered and frustrated but range-free interactions can be well described by closed deterministic flow…
This paper studies the economic role of persistent dispersion in allocations across agents. We develop a tractable model in which firms allocate resources under imperfect information and behavioral updating, generating sustained…
Recent developments in the global liberalization of equity and currency markets, coupled to advances in trading technologies, are making markets increasingly interdependent. This increased fluidity raises questions about the stability of…
Cyclicity and instability inherent in the economy can manifest themselves in irregular fluctuations, including chaotic ones, which significantly reduces the accuracy of forecasting the dynamics of the economic system in the long run. We…
Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…
Strong nonlinear effects combined with diffusive coupling may give rise to unpredictable evolution in spatially extended deterministic dynamical systems even in the presence of a fully negative spectrum of Lyapunov exponents. This regime,…
Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…
This paper explores the dynamics of learning in a multi-sector general equilibrium model where firms operate under incomplete information about their production returns to scale. Firms iteratively update their beliefs using maximum…
In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual…
Randomly-assembled dynamical systems are theoretically predicted to be unstable upon crossing a critical threshold of complexity, as first shown by May. Yet, empirical complex systems exhibit remarkable stability, indicating the presence of…
We explore the nonlinear dynamics of a macroeconomic model with resource constraints. The dynamics is derived from a production function that considers capital and a generalized form of energy as inputs. Energy, the new variable, is…
We study a model in which two players with opposing interests try to alter a status quo through instability-generating actions. We show that instability can be used to secure longer-term durable changes, even if it is costly to generate and…
In this paper, we examine in an abstract framework, how a tradeoff between efficiency and robustness arises in different dynamic oligopolistic market architectures. We consider a market in which there is a monopolistic resource provider and…
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and…
Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the…
We investigate the emergence of synchronization in a network of coupled chaotic macroeconomic systems. Each node represents an economy characterized by three key variables savings, gross domestic product (GDP), and foreign capital inflows.…
In Part II of this paper, we concentrate our analysis on the price dynamical model with the moving average rules developed in Part I of this paper. By decomposing the excessive demand function, we reveal that it is the interplay between…
A commonly used approach to study stability in a complex system is by analyzing the Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium point of a dynamical system. The equilibrium point is stable if all eigenvalues have negative real parts. Here, by…
Why do capitalist economies recurrently generate crises whose severity is disproportionate to the size of the triggering shock? This paper proposes a structural answer grounded in the evolutionary geometry of production networks. As…
We analyse the stability of large, linear dynamical systems of variables that interact through a fully connected random matrix and have inhomogeneous growth rates. We show that in the absence of correlations between the coupling strengths,…