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MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…

Article describes the results of the development and using of Rare-Event Monte-Carlo Simulation Algorithms for Dynamic Fault Trees Estimation. For Fault Trees estimation usually analytical methods are used (Minimal Cut sets, Markov Chains,…

The safety concern for unmanned systems, namely the concern for the potential casualty caused by system abnormalities, has been a bottleneck for their development, especially in populated areas. Evidently, the collision between the unmanned…

In Bayesian inverse problems, one aims at characterizing the posterior distribution of a set of unknowns, given indirect measurements. For non-linear/non-Gaussian problems, analytic solutions are seldom available: Sequential Monte Carlo…

Bayesian inference for doubly-intractable pairwise exponential graphical models typically involves variations of the exchange algorithm or approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. However, existing methods for both classes of…

Inferential models (IMs) offer prior-free, Bayesian-like posterior degrees of belief designed for statistical inference, which feature a frequentist-like calibration property that ensures reliability of said inferences. The catch is that…

Exploiting stochastic path integral theory, we obtain \emph{by simulation} substantial gains in efficiency for the computation of reaction rates in one-dimensional, bistable, overdamped stochastic systems. Using a well-defined measure of…

Bayesian inversions followed by estimations of rare event probabilities are often needed to analyse groundwater hazards. Instead of focusing on the posterior distribution of model parameters, the main interest lies then in the distribution…

Many problems can be formulated as high-dimensional integrals of discontinuous functions that exhibit significant boundary growth, challenging the error analysis and applications of randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods. This paper…

We propose a global optimization algorithm based on the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling framework. In this framework, the objective function is normalized to be a probabilistic density function (pdf), based on which a sequence of…

Estimating the probability of failures or accidents with aerospace systems is often necessary when new concepts or designs are introduced, as it is being done for Autonomous Aircraft. If the design is safe, as it is supposed to be, accident…

Sequential directional importance sampling (SDIS) is an efficient adaptive simulation method for estimating failure probabilities. It expresses the failure probability as the product of a group of integrals that are easy to estimate,…

In statistical data assimilation one seeks the largest maximum of the conditional probability distribution $P(\mathbf{X},\mathbf{p}|\mathbf{Y})$ of model states, $\mathbf{X}$, and parameters,$\mathbf{p}$, conditioned on observations…

In applications of Gaussian processes where quantification of uncertainty is a strict requirement, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over Gaussian process covariance parameters. Normally, this is done by…

The promise of increased road safety is a key motivator for the development of automated vehicles (AV). Yet, demonstrating that an AV is as safe as, or even safer than, a human-driven vehicle has proven to be challenging. Should an AV be…

Identifying future congestion points in electricity distribution networks is an important challenge distribution system operators face. A proven approach for addressing this challenge is to assess distribution grid adequacy using…

Diffusion processes with small noise conditioned to reach a target set are considered. The AMS algorithm is a Monte Carlo method that is used to sample such rare events by iteratively simulating clones of the process and selecting…

Let $(X_n:n\geq 0)$ be a sequence of i.i.d. r.v.'s with negative mean. Set $S_0=0$ and define $S_n=X_1+... +X_n$. We propose an importance sampling algorithm to estimate the tail of $M=\max \{S_n:n\geq 0\}$ that is strongly efficient for…

Many Monte Carlo light transport simulations use multiple importance sampling (MIS) to weight between different path sampling strategies. We propose to use the path throughput to compute the MIS weights instead of the commonly used…

This paper provides an introductory overview of how one may employ importance sampling effectively as a tool for solving stochastic optimization formulations incorporating tail risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk. Approximating…