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This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

This paper develops inferential methods for a very general class of ill-posed models in econometrics encompassing the nonparametric instrumental variable regression, various functional regressions, and the density deconvolution. We focus on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-22 Andrii Babii

We study time-uniform statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation (SA), which encompasses a bunch of applications in optimization and machine learning. To that end, we analyze the almost-sure convergence rates of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-22 Chuhan Xie , Kaicheng Jin , Jiadong Liang , Zhihua Zhang

Based on a progressively type-II censored sample from the exponential distribution with unknown location and scale parameter, confidence bands are proposed for the underlying distribution function by using confidence regions for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-08 Stefan Bedbur , Fabian Mies

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-05 Yan Sun , Pratik Chaudhari , Ian J. Barnett , Edgar Dobriban

We introduce two data-driven procedures for optimal estimation and inference in nonparametric models using instrumental variables. The first is a data-driven choice of sieve dimension for a popular class of sieve two-stage least squares…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-09 Xiaohong Chen , Timothy Christensen , Sid Kankanala

The use of standard statistical methods, such as maximum likelihood, is often justified based on their asymptotic properties. For suitably regular models, this theory is standard but, when the model is non-regular, e.g., the support depends…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-25 Ryan Martin , Yi Lin

Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in machine learning, statistics, and applied mathematics. They provide a flexible modelling framework for approximating functions, whilst simultaneously quantifying uncertainty. However, this is only true…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-19 George Wynne , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

We develop adaptive estimation and inference methods for high-dimensional Gaussian copula regression that achieve the same performance without the knowledge of the marginal transformations as that for high-dimensional linear regression.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-09 T. Tony Cai , Linjun Zhang

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Olivier C. Pasche , Henry Lam , Sebastian Engelke

In this paper, we investigate the approximation problem for functions in Gaussian Sobolev spaces $W^s_p(\mathbb{R}^d, \gamma)$ of smoothness $s > 0$, where the approximation error is measured in the Gaussian Lebesgue space…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Van Kien Nguyen

In this paper, we propose and study construction of confidence bands for shape-constrained regression functions when the predictor is multivariate. In particular, we consider the continuous multidimensional white noise model given by $d…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-24 Ashley , Datta , Somabha Mukherjee , Bodhisattva Sen

An intrinsic definition in terms of conformal capacity is proposed for the conformal type of a Carnot--Carath\'eodory space (parabolic or hyperbolic). Geometric criteria of conformal type are presented. They are closely related to the…

Differential Geometry · Mathematics 2016-09-06 Vladimir A. Zorich

We present an alternative way to determine the unknown parameter associated to a gaussian approximation in a generic two-dimensional model. Instead of the standard variational approach, we propose a procedure based on a quantitative…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2016-08-16 Aníbal Iucci , Carlos Naón

A model-independent or non-parametric approach for modeling a database has been widely used in cosmology. In these scenarios, the data has been used directly to reconstruct an underlying function. In this work, we introduce a novel…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-01-19 Ahmad Mehrabi

A class of estimating functions is introduced for the regression parameter of the Cox proportional hazards model to allow unknown failure statuses on some study subjects. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Irene Gijbels , Danyu Lin , Zhiliang Ying

Despite the ubiquity of the Gaussian process regression model, few theoretical results are available that account for the fact that parameters of the covariance kernel typically need to be estimated from the dataset. This article provides…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-12 Toni Karvonen , George Wynne , Filip Tronarp , Chris J. Oates , Simo Särkkä

Consider the case that we observe $n$ independent and identically distributed copies of a random variable with a probability distribution known to be an element of a specified statistical model. We are interested in estimating an infinite…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-20 Mark J. van der Laan , Aurélien F. Bibaut

Our main result is an abstract good-$\lambda$ inequality that allows us to consider three self-improving properties related to oscillation estimates in a very general context. The novelty of our approach is that there is one principle…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2018-10-10 Lauri Berkovits , Juha Kinnunen , José María Martell