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Accurate day-ahead peak load forecasting is crucial not only for power dispatching but also has a great interest to investors and energy policy maker as well as government. Literature reveals that 1% error drop of forecast can reduce 10…
Accurate electricity demand forecasting is challenging due to the strong multi-periodicity of real-world demand series, which makes effective modeling of recurrent temporal patterns crucial. Decomposition techniques make such structure…
The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method and its variants have been extensively employed in the load and renewable forecasting literature. Using this multiresolution decomposition, time series (TS) related to the historical load and…
Following the "decomposition-and-ensemble" principle, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD)-based modeling framework has been widely used as a promising alternative for nonlinear and nonstationary time series modeling and prediction. The…
The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) has achieved its reputation by providing a multi-scale time-frequency representation of nonlinear and/or nonstationary signals. To extend this method to vector-valued signals (VvS) in multidimensional…
Time-series forecasting often faces challenges due to data volatility, which can lead to inaccurate predictions. Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) has emerged as a promising technique to mitigate volatility by decomposing data into…
A new variational mode decomposition (VMD) based deep learning approach is proposed in this paper for time series forecasting problem. Firstly, VMD is adopted to decompose the original time series into several sub-signals. Then, a…
Residential electricity demand forecasting is critical for efficient energy management and grid stability. Accurate predictions enable utility companies to optimize planning and operations. However, real-world residential electricity demand…
To enhance the accuracy of power load forecasting in wind farms, this study introduces an advanced combined forecasting method that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) with an Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (IPSO)…
In a number of environmental studies, relationships between natural processes are often assessed through regression analyses, using time series data. Such data are often multi-scale and non-stationary, leading to a poor accuracy of the…
Seasonal time series exhibit intricate long-term dependencies, posing a significant challenge for accurate future prediction. This paper introduces the Multi-scale Seasonal Decomposition Model (MSSD) for seasonal time-series forecasting.…
Short-term load forecasting is one of the crucial sections in smart grid. Precise forecasting enables system operators to make reliable unit commitment and power dispatching decisions. With the advent of big data, a number of artificial…
The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and its complete variant (CEEMDAN) are adaptive, noise-assisted data analysis methods that improve on the ordinary empirical mode decomposition (EMD). All these methods decompose possibly…
Predicting multivariate time series is crucial, demanding precise modeling of intricate patterns, including inter-series dependencies and intra-series variations. Distinctive trend characteristics in each time series pose challenges, and…
Temporal non-stationarity, the phenomenon that time series distributions change over time, poses fundamental challenges to reliable time series forecasting. Intuitively, the complex time series can be decomposed into two factors, \ie…
Time series forecasting remains a central challenge problem in almost all scientific disciplines. We introduce a novel load forecasting method in which observed dynamics are modeled as a forced linear system using Dynamic Mode Decomposition…
In this work, we present a method which determines optimal multi-step dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) models via entropic regression, which is a nonlinear information flow detection algorithm. Motivated by the higher-order DMD (HODMD)…
Time series data is a prevalent form of data found in various fields. It consists of a series of measurements taken over time. Forecasting is a crucial application of time series models, where future values are predicted based on historical…
This paper introduces a data-driven time embedding method for modeling long-range seasonal dependencies in spatiotemporal forecasting tasks. The proposed approach employs Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to extract temporal modes directly…
This thesis examines the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a method for decomposing multicomponent signals, from a modern, both theoretical and practical, perspective. The motivation is to further formalize the concept and develop new…