Related papers: Relieving and Readjusting Pythagoras
Bayesian optimal design is a well-established approach to planning experiments. A distribution for the responses, i.e. a statistical model, is assumed which is dependent on unknown parameters. A utility function is then specified giving…
The field of quantitative analytics has transformed the world of sports over the last decade. To date, these analytic approaches are statistical at their core, characterizing what is and what was, while using this information to drive…
In this article we revise the football's performance score called PlayeRank, designed and evaluated by Pappalardo et al.\ in 2019. First, we analyze the weights extracted from the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) that solves the…
A new model, which uses the frequency of individuals' annual home run totals, is employed to predict future home run totals and records in Major League Baseball. Complete home run frequency data from 1903--2005 is analyzed, resulting in…
In reliability and life data analysis, the Weibull distribution is widely used to accommodate more data characteristics by changing the values of the parameters. We frequently observe many zeros or close to zero data points in reliability…
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become…
Can one understand the statistics of wins and losses of baseball teams? Are their consecutive-game winning and losing streaks self-reinforcing or can they be described statistically? We apply the Bradley-Terry model, which incorporates the…
Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly…
Many scientific and industrial processes produce data that is best analysed as vectors of relative values, often called compositions or proportions. The Dirichlet distribution is a natural distribution to use for composition or proportion…
The Weibull distribution is a very applicable model for the lifetime data. In this paper, we have investigated inference on the parameters of Weibull distribution based on record values. We first propose a simple and exact test and a…
A long-standing open problem in algorithmic game theory asks whether or not there is a polynomial time algorithm to compute a Nash equilibrium in a random bimatrix game. We study random win-lose games, where the entries of the $n\times n$…
How often can we expect a Major League Baseball team to score at least 20 runs in a single game? Considered a rare event in baseball, the outcome of scoring at least 20 runs in a game has occurred 224 times during regular season games since…
Probabilistic load forecasts provide comprehensive information about future load uncertainties. In recent years, many methodologies and techniques have been proposed for probabilistic load forecasting. Forecast combination, a widely…
We introduce the Prediction Advantage (PA), a novel performance measure for prediction functions under any loss function (e.g., classification or regression). The PA is defined as the performance advantage relative to the Bayesian risk…
The odds ratio (OR) is a measure of effect size commonly used in observational research. OR reflects statistical association between a binary outcome, such as the presence of a health condition, and a binary predictor, such as an exposure…
Runs Batted IN (RBI) records the number of runs a hitter directly drives in during their plate appearances and reflects a batter's ability to convert opportunities into scoring. Because producing runs determines game outcomes, RBI has long…
Among the various procedures used to detect potential changes in a stochastic process the moving sum algorithms are very popular due to their intuitive appeal and good statistical performance. One of the important design parameters of a…
The game-theoretic risk management framework put forth in the precursor work "Towards a Theory of Games with Payoffs that are Probability-Distributions" (arXiv:1506.07368 [q-fin.EC]) is herein extended by algorithmic details on how to…
We present evidence, based on play-by-play data from all 6087 games from the 2006/07--2009/10 seasons of the National Basketball Association (NBA), that basketball scoring is well described by a weakly-biased continuous-time random walk.…
In Major League Baseball, strategy and planning are major factors in determining the outcome of a game. Previous studies have aided this by building machine learning models for predicting the winning team of any given game. We extend this…