Related papers: Empirical risk minimization for heavy-tailed losse…
We address the problem of estimating the expected shortfall risk of a financial loss using a finite number of i.i.d. data. It is well known that the classical plug-in estimator suffers from poor statistical performance when faced with…
This paper investigates asymptotic properties of algorithms that can be viewed as robust analogues of the classical empirical risk minimization. These strategies are based on replacing the usual empirical average by a robust proxy of the…
We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles, of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator of the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked,…
Quantile regression is an increasingly important empirical tool in economics and other sciences for analyzing the impact of a set of regressors on the conditional distribution of an outcome. Extremal quantile regression, or quantile…
In this paper we consider the estimation problem for high quantiles of a heavy-tailed distribution from block data when only a few largest values are observed within blocks. We propose estimators for high quantiles and prove that these…
Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…
In performative prediction, predictions guide decision-making and hence can influence the distribution of future data. To date, work on performative prediction has focused on finding performatively stable models, which are the fixed points…
In this paper we consider a compound Poisson risk model with regularly varying claim sizes. For this model in [1] an asymptotic formula for the finite time ruin probability is provided when the time is scaled by the mean excess function. In…
We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some…
This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, i.e. of which 1-d Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate…
A confidence sequence (CS) is a sequence of confidence intervals that is valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times. These are useful in applications like A/B testing, multi-armed bandits, off-policy evaluation, election auditing,…
We prove lower bounds on the error of any estimator for the mean of a real probability distribution under the knowledge that the distribution belongs to a given set. We apply these lower bounds both to parametric and nonparametric…
Finite-sample upper bounds on the estimation error of a winsorized mean estimator of the population mean in the presence of heavy tails and adversarial contamination are established. In comparison to existing results, the winsorized mean…
Robust and sparse estimation of linear regression coefficients is investigated. The situation addressed by the present paper is that covariates and noises are sampled from heavy-tailed distributions, and the covariates and noises are…
We analyze systems of agents sharing light-tailed risky claims issued by different financial objects. Assuming exponentially distributed claims, we obtain that both agents' and system's losses follow generalized exponential mixture…
We study the optimal decisions and equilibria of agents who aim to minimize their risks by allocating their positions over extremely heavy-tailed (i.e., infinite-mean) and possibly dependent losses. The loss distributions of our focus are…
We present an argument based on the multidimensional and the uniform central limit theorems, proving that, under some geometrical assumptions between the target function $T$ and the learning class $F$, the excess risk of the empirical risk…
This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…
In this paper, we study dependence uncertainty and the resulting effects on tail risk measures, which play a fundamental role in modern risk management. We introduce the notion of a regular dependence measure, defined on multi-marginal…
Risk measures like Marginal Expected Shortfall and Marginal Mean Excess quantify conditional risk and in particular, aid in the understanding of systemic risk. In many such scenarios, models exhibiting heavy tails in the margins and…