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Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-01 Agustinus Kristiadi , Sina Däubener , Asja Fischer

Quantile regression has received increased attention in the statistics community in recent years. This article adapts an auxiliary variable method, commonly used in Bayesian variable selection for mean regression models, to the fitting of…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-28 J. -L. Dortet-Bernadet , Y. Fan

Aleatoric uncertainty captures the inherent randomness of the data, such as measurement noise. In Bayesian regression, we often use a Gaussian observation model, where we control the level of aleatoric uncertainty with a noise variance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Sanyam Kapoor , Wesley J. Maddox , Pavel Izmailov , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Estimating parameters of mixture model has wide applications ranging from classification problems to estimating of complex distributions. Most of the current literature on estimating the parameters of the mixture densities are based on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-23 Yuantong Li , Qi Ma , Sujit K. Ghosh

The quantile varying coefficient (VC) model can flexibly capture dynamical patterns of regression coefficients. In addition, due to the quantile check loss function, it is robust against outliers and heavy-tailed distributions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Fei Zhou , Jie Ren , Shuangge Ma , Cen Wu

Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) models deal with estimating conditional distributions. The conditions imposed on the distribution are the inputs of the model. CDE is a challenging task as there is a fundamental trade-off between model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-31 Vincent Dutordoir , Hugh Salimbeni , Marc Deisenroth , James Hensman

Distribution estimation for noisy data via density deconvolution is a notoriously difficult problem for typical noise distributions like Gaussian. We develop a density deconvolution estimator based on quadratic programming (QP) that can…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-06 Ran Yang , Daniel Apley , Jeremy Staum , David Ruppert

A natural Bayesian approach for mixture models with an unknown number of components is to take the usual finite mixture model with Dirichlet weights, and put a prior on the number of components---that is, to use a mixture of finite mixtures…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-24 Jeffrey W. Miller , Matthew T. Harrison

We present a nonparametric Bayesian joint model for multivariate continuous and categorical variables, with the intention of developing a flexible engine for multiple imputation of missing values. The model fuses Dirichlet process mixtures…

Applications · Statistics 2015-10-14 Jared S. Murray , Jerome P. Reiter

A new class of general exponential ranking models is introduced which we label angle-based models for ranking data. A consensus score vector is assumed, which assigns scores to a set of items, where the scores reflect a consensus view of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-27 Hang Xu , Mayer Alvo , Philip L. H. Yu

Density regression provides a flexible strategy for modeling the distribution of a response variable $Y$ given predictors $\mathbf{X}=(X_1,\ldots,X_p)$ by letting that the conditional density of $Y$ given $\mathbf{X}$ as a completely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Ali Mohammad-Djafari , Olivier Feron

There is wide interest in studying how the distribution of a continuous response changes with a predictor. We are motivated by environmental applications in which the predictor is the dose of an exposure and the response is a health…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-10 Antonio Canale , Daniele Durante , David Dunson

Fertility plans, measured by the number of planned children, have been found to be affected by education and family background via complex tail dependencies. This challenge was previously met with the use of non-parametric jittering…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-18 Alina Peluso , Veronica Vinciotti , Keming Yu

We propose a novel Bayesian model framework for discrete ordinal and count data based on conditional transformations of the responses. The conditional transformation function is estimated from the data in conjunction with an a priori chosen…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-19 Manuel Carlan , Thomas Kneib

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-18 Rasool Fakoor , Taesup Kim , Jonas Mueller , Alexander J. Smola , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Due to increased awareness of data protection and corresponding laws many data, especially involving sensitive personal information, are not publicly accessible. Accordingly, many data collecting agencies only release aggregated data, e.g.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Rajbir-Singh Nirwan , Nils Bertschinger

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are common for modeling complex data. While these models are well-suited for density estimation, recent results proved posterior inconsistency of the number of clusters when the true number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-31 Louise Alamichel , Daria Bystrova , Julyan Arbel , Guillaume Kon Kam King

Dirichlet process mixtures are flexible non-parametric models, particularly suited to density estimation and probabilistic clustering. In this work we study the posterior distribution induced by Dirichlet process mixtures as the sample size…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-29 Filippo Ascolani , Antonio Lijoi , Giovanni Rebaudo , Giacomo Zanella

We study Bayesian estimation of finite mixture models in a general setup where the number of components is unknown and allowed to grow with the sample size. An assumption on growing number of components is a natural one as the degree of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Ilsang Ohn , Lizhen Lin