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Related papers: Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal contac…

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Time-limited states characterise many dynamical processes on networks: disease infected individuals recover after some time, people forget news spreading on social networks, or passengers may not wait forever for a connection. These…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-06-13 Arash Badie-Modiri , Márton Karsai , Mikko Kivelä

Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-24 Ghazaleh Babanejaddehaki , Aijun An , Manos Papagelis

The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid getting infected. This leads to changes in contact patterns. However, as we show in this paper,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-15 Ka Yin Leung , Frank Ball , David Sirl , Tom Britton

Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-02-13 Sam Moore , Tim Rogers

Early outbreak detection is a key aspect in the containment of infectious diseases, as it enables the identification and isolation of infected individuals before the disease can spread to a larger population. Instead of detecting unexpected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Michael Rapp , Moritz Kulessa , Eneldo Loza Mencía , Johannes Fürnkranz

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-05-09 Clara Granell , Peter J. Mucha

Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Luke Murray Kearney , Emma L Davis , Matt J Keeling

We present a general framework for adaptive allocation of viral tests in social contact networks. We pose and solve several complementary problems. First, we consider the design of a social sensing system whose objective is the early…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Pau Batlle , Joan Bruna , Carlos Fernandez-Granda , Victor M. Preciado

Incorporating decision-making dynamics during an outbreak poses a challenge for epidemiology, faced by several modeling approaches siloed by different disciplines. We propose an epi-economic model where high-frequency choices of individuals…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-01-31 Lorenzo Amir Nemati Fard , Alberto Bisin , Michele Starnini , Michele Tizzoni

Many datasets describing contacts in a population suffer from incompleteness due to population sampling and underreporting of contacts. Data-driven simulations of spreading processes using such incomplete data lead to an underestimation of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-07 Julie Fournet , Alain Barrat

Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-02 Gail E. Potter , Timo Smieszek , Kerstin Sailer

Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-10-11 Samuel V. Scarpino , Giovanni Petri

The customary perspective to reason about epidemic mitigation in temporal networks hinges on the identification of nodes with specific features or network roles. The ensuing individual-based control strategies, however, are difficult to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-01-13 Laetitia Gauvin , André Panisson , Alain Barrat , Ciro Cattuto

Network epidemiology has become a core framework for investigating the role of human contact patterns in the spreading of infectious diseases. In network epidemiology represents the contact structure as a network of nodes (individuals)…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-06-10 Petter Holme

Link prediction -- to identify potential missing or spurious links in temporal network data -- has typically been based on local structures, ignoring long-term temporal effects. In this chapter, we propose link-prediction methods based on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-11-27 Yueran Duan , Qing Guan , Petter Holme , Yacheng Yang , Wei Guan

The emergence of novel infectious agents presents challenges to statistical models of disease transmission. These challenges arise from limited, poor-quality data and an incomplete understanding of the agent. Moreover, outbreaks manifest…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Jiasheng Shi , Jeffrey S. Morris , David M. Rubin , Jing Huang

The spontaneous behavioral changes of the agents during an epidemic can have significant effects on the delay and the prevalence of its spread. In this work, we study a social distancing game among the agents of a population, who determine…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-13 A. -R. Lagos , I. Kordonis , G. P. Papavassilopoulos

Human mobility forms the backbone of contact patterns through which infectious diseases propagate, fundamentally shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics and pandemics. While traditional models are often based on the assumption…

When modeling the dynamics of infectious disease, the incorporation of contact network information allows for the capture of the non-randomness and heterogeneity of realistic contact patterns. Oftentimes, it is assumed that the underlying…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-04-17 Maxwell H. Wang , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-03-09 Kathinka Frieswijk , Lorenzo Zino , Ming Cao