Related papers: Pythagoras at the Bat
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We developed an artificial intelligence approach to predict the transfer fee of a football player. This model can help clubs make better decisions about which players to buy and sell, which can lead to improved performance and increased…
In the empirical approach to game-theoretic analysis (EGTA), the model of the game comes not from declarative representation, but is derived by interrogation of a procedural description of the game environment. The motivation for developing…
Passing during power plays in hockey is a crucial component to move one's team closer to scoring a goal. With the use of women's ice hockey event and tracking data from the elimination round games during the 2022 Winter Olympics, we…
We present an algorithm for learning the intrinsic value of a batted ball in baseball. This work addresses the fundamental problem of separating the value of a batted ball at contact from factors such as the defense, weather, and ballpark…
We give elementary examples within a framework for studying decisions under uncertainty where probabilities are only roughly known. The framework, in gambling terms, is that the size of a bet is proportional to the gambler's perceived…
Behavioral experiments on the Ultimatum Game have shown that we human beings have remarkable preference in fair play, contradicting the predictions by the game theory. Most of the existing models seeking for explanations, however, strictly…
In the game-theoretic model war of attrition, players are subject to an explicit cost proportional to the duration of contests. We construct a model where the time cost is not explicitly given, but instead depends implicitly on the…
Transfers in professional football (soccer) are risky investments because of the large transfer fees and high risks involved. Although data-driven models can be used to improve transfer decisions, existing models focus on describing…
In the run-up to any major sports tournament, winning probabilities of participants are publicized for engagement and betting purposes. These are generally based on simulating the tournament tens of thousands of times by sampling from…
The field of quantitative analytics has transformed the world of sports over the last decade. To date, these analytic approaches are statistical at their core, characterizing what is and what was, while using this information to drive…
Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of…
Given a fixed budget for player salaries, what is the distribution of salaries of the top scoring teams? We investigated this question using the wealth of data available from fantasy premier league football (soccer). Using the players' data…
Standard measures of batting performance such as a batting average and an on-base percentage can be decomposed into component rates such as strikeout rates and home run rates. The likelihood of hitting data for a group of players can be…
We investigate multi-round team competitions between two teams, where each team selects one of its players simultaneously in each round and each player can play at most once. The competition defines an extensive-form game with perfect…
While PageRank has been extensively used to rank sport tournament participants (teams or individuals), its superiority over simpler ranking methods has been never clearly demonstrated. We use sports results from 18 major leagues to…