Related papers: Statistics for Tail Processes of Markov Chains

We obtain in this paper a non-asymptotic non-improvable up to multiplicative constant moment and exponential tail estimates for distribution for U-statistics by means of martingale representation. We show also the exactness of obtained…

Due to globalization and relaxed market regulation, we have assisted to an increasing of extremal dependence in international markets. As a consequence, several measures of tail dependence have been stated in literature in recent years,…

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of higher-order conditional tail moments, which quantify the contribution of individual losses in the event of systemic collapse. The study is conducted within a framework comprising two…

This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, i.e. of which 1-d Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate…

In this brief note, we find formulas for the distribution and the transition probability matrices of a stochastic process described as a time-reversion in a finite time window of a Markov chain, with cluster observation of the Markov state…

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

Random walks are a fundamental model in applied mathematics and are a common example of a Markov chain. The limiting stationary distribution of the Markov chain represents the fraction of the time spent in each state during the stochastic…

There is given a method for estimation of a probability distribution tail in terms of characteristic function. Key words: characteristic function; tail of a distribution.

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

The multivariate version of the Mixed Tempered Stable is proposed. It is a generalization of the Normal Variance Mean Mixtures. Characteristics of this new distribution and its capacity in fitting tails and capturing dependence structure…

Assessing dependence within co-movements of financial instruments has been of much interest in risk management. Typically, indices of tail dependence are used to quantify the strength of such dependence, although many of the indices…

The goal of this paper is an exhaustive investigation of the link between the tail measure of a regularly varying time series and its spectral tail process, independently introduced in Owada and Samorodnitsky (2012) and Basrak and Segers…

Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…

We derive the sharp non-asymptotical uniform estimations for tails of distributions for classical normed sums of centered normed independent random vectors having a moderate decreasing individual tails of summands.

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Using terminologies of information geometry, we derive upper and lower bounds of the tail probability of the sample mean. Employing these bounds, we obtain upper and lower bounds of the minimum error probability of the 2nd kind of error…

In this paper, we introduce the notion of efficiency (consistency) and examine some asymptotic properties of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We apply these results to the data augmentation (DA) procedure for independent and identically…

The reflected process of a random walk or L\'evy process arises in many areas of applied probability, and a question of particular interest is how the tail of the distribution of the heights of the excursions away from zero behaves…

We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…

The tail measure of a regularly varying stationary time series has been recently introduced. It is used in this contribution to reconsider certain properties of the tail process and establish new ones. A new formulation of the time change…