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Conformal prediction has emerged as a rigorous means of providing deep learning models with reliable uncertainty estimates and safety guarantees. Yet, its performance is known to degrade under distribution shift and long-tailed class…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Kevin Kasa , Graham W. Taylor

We introduce a new actuarial tail-shape index, the $\theta$-index, based on a probability equal level relationship between Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. The index is defined at each tail probability level as the parameter value for…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-29 Georgios I. Papayiannis , Georgios Psarrakos

We construct a new tail bound for the sum of independent random variables for situations in which the expected value of the sum is known and each random variable lies within a specified interval, which may be different for each variable.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Jackson Loper , Jeffrey Regier

Toda Conformal Field Theories (CFTs) form a family of 2d CFTs indexed by semisimple and complex Lie algebras. They are natural generalizations of the Liouville CFT in that they enjoy an enhanced level of symmetry encoded by W-algebras.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-28 Baptiste Cerclé

Discrete-time Control Barrier Functions (DTCBFs) have recently attracted interest for guaranteeing safety and synthesizing safe controllers for discrete-time dynamical systems. This paper addresses the open challenges of verifying candidate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-24 Erfan Shakhesi , W. P. M. H. Heemels , Alexander Katriniok

Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and accordingly unpromising performance especially on tail classes. Recently, the ensembling based methods achieve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-28 Bolian Li , Zongbo Han , Haining Li , Huazhu Fu , Changqing Zhang

We investigate higher-order corrections to correlators in a general CFT (conformal field theory) with the double-trace $T\bar{T}$ deformation. Standard perturbation theory proves inadequate for this problem due to the intricate…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2025-07-31 Song He , Yuan Sun , Jiashi Yin

Consider Bernoulli(1/2) percolation on $\Z^d$, and define a perfect matching between open and closed vertices in a way that is a deterministic equivariant function of the configuration. We want to find such matching rules that make the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-08 Adam Timar

We investigate generic n-point correlation functions of conformal field theories (CFTs), with $T\bar{T}$ and $J\bar{T}$ deformations, in terms of the perturbative CFT approach. We systematically obtain the first order correction to the…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2022-04-26 Song He

We consider the problem of correlation functions in the stationary states of one-dimensional stochastic models having conformal invariance. If one considers the space dependence of the correlators, the novel aspect is that although one…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-06-17 Francisco C. Alcaraz , Vladimir Rittenberg

This paper deals with an inertial proximal algorithm that contains a Tikhonov regularization term, in connection to the minimization problem of a convex lower semicontinuous function $f$. We show that for appropriate Tikhonov regularization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-09 Szilárd Csaba László

Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

Capital allocation is a procedure used to assess the risk contributions of individual risk components to the total risk of a portfolio. While the conditional tail expectation (CTE)-based capital allocation is arguably the most popular…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-05 Enrique Calderín-Ojeda , Yuyu Chen , Soon Wei Tan

This paper considers the tail asymptotics for a cumulative process $\{B(t); t \ge 0\}$ sampled at a heavy-tailed random time $T$. The main contribution of this paper is to establish several sufficient conditions for the asymptotic equality…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-30 Hiroyuki Masuyama

In this paper, we consider the tensor completion problem representing the solution in the tensor train (TT) format. It is assumed that tensor is high-dimensional, and tensor values are generated by an unknown smooth function. The assumption…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-27 Yermek Kapushev , Ivan Oseledets , Evgeny Burnaev

This paper introduces a general regularized thresholded least-square procedure estimating a structured signal $\theta_*\in\mathbb{R}^d$ from the following observations: $y_i = f(\langle\mathbf{x}_i, \theta_*\rangle,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-18 Xiaohan Wei

The Conti-Boston factorization theorem (CBFT) for linear tail-biting trellis realizations is extended to group realizations with a new and simpler proof, based on a controller granule decomposition of the behavior and known controllability…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-02-24 G. David Forney

Analytic combinatorics in several variables (ACSV) analyzes the asymptotic growth of the coefficients of a meromorphic generating function $F = G/H$ in a direction $\mathbf{r}$. It uses Morse theory on the pole variety $V := \{ H = 0 \}…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2022-10-13 Stephen Gillen

In general, obtaining the exact steady-state distribution of queue lengths is not feasible. Therefore, we establish bounds for the tail probabilities of queue lengths. Specifically, we examine queueing systems under Heavy-Traffic (HT)…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Prakirt Raj Jhunjhunwala , Daniela Hurtado-Lange , Siva Theja Maguluri

This study introduces a new analytical framework for quantifying multivariate risk measures. Using the Wishart process, which is a stochastic process with values in the space of positive definite matrices, we derive several conditional tail…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-09 Jose Da Fonseca , Patrick Wong