Related papers: Wealth share analysis with "fundamentalist/chartis…
In real-world stock markets, certain chart patterns -- such as price declines near historical highs -- cannot be fully explained by fundamentals alone. These phenomena suggest the presence of path dependence in price formation, where…
Securities markets are quintessential complex adaptive systems in which heterogeneous agents compete in an attempt to maximize returns. Species of trading agents are also subject to evolutionary pressure as entire classes of strategies…
Different models to study the wealth distribution in an artificial society have considered a transactional dynamics as the driving force. Those models include a risk aversion factor, but also a finite probability of favoring the poorer…
Different models of capital exchange among economic agents have been proposed recently trying to explain the emergence of Pareto's wealth power law distribution. One important factor to be considered is the existence of risk aversion. In…
We investigate the financial market dynamics by introducing a heterogeneous agent-based opinion formation model. In this work, we organize the individuals in a financial market by their trading strategy, namely noise traders and…
Income and risk coexist, yet investors are often so focused on chasing high returns that they overlook the potential risks that can lead to high losses. Therefore, risk forecasting and risk control is the cornerstone of investment. To…
Trading styles can be classified into either trend-following or mean-reverting. If the net trading style is trend-following the traded asset is more likely to move in the same direction it moved previously (the opposite is true if the net…
Background: For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However,…
Modeling and characterizing multiple factors is perhaps the most important step in achieving excess returns over market benchmarks. Both academia and industry are striving to find new factors that have good explanatory power for future…
The use of machine learning for statistical modeling (and thus, generative modeling) has grown in popularity with the proliferation of time series models, text-to-image models, and especially large language models. Fundamentally, the goal…
Many models of market dynamics make use of the idea of conservative wealth exchanges among economic agents. A few years ago an exchange model using extremal dynamics was developed and a very interesting result was obtained: a self-generated…
This study is a detailed analysis of Speculation Game, a minimal agent-based model of financial markets, in which the round-trip trading and the dynamic wealth evolution with variable trading volumes are implemented. Instead of herding…
In nature and human societies, the effects of homogeneous and heterogeneous characteristics on the evolution of collective behaviors are quite different from each other. It is of great importance to understand the underlying mechanisms of…
Multi-agent models have been used in many contexts to study generic collective behavior. Similarly, complex networks have become very popular because of the diversity of growth rules giving rise to scale-free behavior. Here we study…
Results in the Heterogeneous Agent Model (HAM) literature determine the proportion of fundamentalists and trend followers in the financial market. This proportion varies according to the periods analyzed. In this paper, we use a large…
We study the continuous time portfolio optimization model on the market where the mean returns of individual securities or asset categories are linearly dependent on underlying economic factors. We introduce the functional $Q_\gamma$…
Fat tails in financial time series and increase of stocks cross-correlations in high volatility periods are puzzling facts that ask for new paradigms. Both points are of key importance in fundamental research as well as in Risk Management…
This paper explores the utility of agent-based simulations in realistically modelling market structures and sheds light on the nuances of optimal dealer strategies. It underscores the contrast between conclusions drawn from probabilistic…
How can we limit wealth disparities while stimulating economic flows in sustainable societies? To examine the link between these concepts, we propose an econophysics asset exchange model with the surplus stock of the wealthy. The wealthy…
We introduce an auto-regressive model which captures the growing nature of realistic markets. In our model agents do not trade with other agents, they interact indirectly only through a market. Change of their wealth depends, linearly on…