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We have shown recently that a Markov process conditioned on rare events involving time-integrated random variables can be described in the long-time limit by an effective Markov process, called the driven process, which is given…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-12-17 Raphael Chetrite , Hugo Touchette

A continuous-time Markov process $X$ can be conditioned to be in a given state at a fixed time $T > 0$ using Doob's $h$-transform. This transform requires the typically intractable transition density of $X$. The effect of the $h$-transform…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-16 Marc Corstanje , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

Doob fixed-time conditioning enables the sampling of rare trajectories of Markov processes by modifying the drift so that reaching a prescribed target at a given time is guaranteed. We study the statistics of this conditioned path ensemble…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-26 Iago N. Mamede , Francesco Coghi

A Markov process fluctuating away from its typical behavior can be represented in the long-time limit by another Markov process, called the effective or driven process, having the same stationary states as the original process conditioned…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-30 Florian Angeletti , Hugo Touchette

We introduce and test an algorithm that adaptively estimates large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes in the long-time limit. These functions play an important role for predicting…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-30 Grégoire Ferré , Hugo Touchette

We study the fluctuations of systems modeled by Markov jump processes with periodic generators. We focus on observables defined through time-periodic functions of the system's states or transitions. Using large deviation theory, canonical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-04-22 Lydia Chabane , Raphaël Chétrite , Gatien Verley

We connect self-interacting processes, that is, stochastic processes where transitions depend on the time spent by a trajectory in each configuration, to Doob conditioning. In this way we demonstrate that Markov processes with constrained…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-11-19 Francesco Coghi , Juan P. Garrahan

We consider the task of generating draws from a Markov jump process (MJP) between two time-points at which the process is known. Resulting draws are typically termed bridges and the generation of such bridges plays a key role in…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-31 Andrew Golightly , Chris Sherlock

This article analyzes and compares two general techniques of rare event simulation for generating paths of Markov processes over fixed time horizons: exponential tilting and stochastic bridge. These two methods allow to accurately compute…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-08-27 Javier Aguilar , Riccardo Gatto

Generalizations of the microcanonical and canonical ensembles for paths of Markov processes have been proposed recently to describe the statistical properties of nonequilibrium systems driven in steady states. Here we propose a theory of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-09-18 Raphael Chetrite , Hugo Touchette

For discrete-state stochastic systems obeying Markovian dynamics, we establish the counterpart of the conditional reversibility theorem obtained by Gallavotti for deterministic systems [Ann. de l'Institut Henri Poincar\'e (A) 70, 429…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-02-10 Marcus V. S. Bonança , Christopher Jarzynski

A study of time homogeneous, real valued Markov processes with a special property and a non-atomic initial distribution is provided. The new notion of a function of evolution of distribution which determines the dependency between one…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Tomasz Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Maciej Wiśniewolski

A Markovian bridge is a probability measure taken from a disintegration of the law of an initial part of the path of a Markov process given its terminal value. As such, Markovian bridges admit a natural parameterization in terms of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-15 Loïc Chaumont , Gerónimo Uribe Bravo

Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…

In the field of large deviations for stochastic dynamics, the canonical conditioning of a given Markov process with respect to a given time-local trajectory observable over a large time-window has attracted a lot of interest recently. In…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-24 Cecile Monthus

Markov processes with stochastic resetting towards the origin generically converge towards non-equilibrium steady-states. Long dynamical trajectories can be thus analyzed via the large deviations at Level 2.5 for the joint probability of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-05-07 Cecile Monthus

The large deviations properties of trajectory observables for chaotic non-invertible deterministic maps as studied recently by N. R. Smith, Phys. Rev. E 106, L042202 (2022) and by R. Gutierrez, A. Canella-Ortiz, C. Perez-Espigares,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-30 Cecile Monthus

We revisit classic ergodic large-deviation principles: for the occupation measure (Donsker-Varadhan), and for the empirical flux. We show that these problems can be embedded into a more general, discrete-time framework. A conditioning and…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-02 D. R. Michiel Renger

Let $X$ be a Markov process taking values in $\mathbf{E}$ with continuous paths and transition function $(P_{s,t})$. Given a measure $\mu$ on $(\mathbf{E}, \mathscr{E})$, a Markov bridge starting at $(s,\varepsilon_x)$ and ending at…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-13 Umut Çetin , Albina Danilova

We establish an abstract, effective, exponential large deviations type estimate for Markov systems satisfying a weaker form of mixing. We employ this result to derive such estimates, as well as a central limit theorem, for the skew product…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Ao Cai , Pedro Duarte , Silvius Klein
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