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Statistical inferential results generally come with a measure of reliability for decision-making purposes. For a policy implementer, the value of implementing published policy research depends critically upon this reliability. For a policy…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2024-08-21 Duncan Ermini Leaf

Established frameworks to understand problems with reproducibility in science begin with the relationship between our understanding of the prior probability of a claim and the statistical certainty that should be demanded of it, and explore…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-05-30 Maria Chikina , Wesley Pegden

Inference is the process of using facts we know to learn about facts we do not know. A theory of inference gives assumptions necessary to get from the former to the latter, along with a definition for and summary of the resulting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-27 Beau Coker , Cynthia Rudin , Gary King

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

Reconstruction error is a prevalent score used to identify anomalous samples when data are modeled by generative models, such as (variational) auto-encoders or generative adversarial networks. This score relies on the assumption that normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-29 Václav Šmídl , Jan Bím , Tomáš Pevný

Verifying that a statistically significant result is scientifically meaningful is not only good scientific practice, it is a natural way to control the Type I error rate. Here we introduce a novel extension of the p-value - a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-04 Jeffrey D. Blume , Lucy DAgostino McGowan , William D. Dupont , Robert A. Greevy

Assessing variability according to distinct factors in data is a fundamental technique of statistics. The method commonly regarded to as analysis of variance (ANOVA) is, however, typically confined to the case where all levels of a factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-15 Steven Geinitz , Reinhard Furrer

Robust estimation approaches are of fundamental importance for statistical modelling. To reduce susceptibility to outliers, we propose a robust estimation procedure with t-process under functional ANOVA model. Besides common mean structure…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-19 Chen Zhang , Zimu Chen , Zhanfeng Wang , Yaohua Wu

In this paper we apply the previously introduced approximation method based on the ANOVA (analysis of variance) decomposition and Grouped Transformations to synthetic and real data. The advantage of this method is the interpretability of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-31 Daniel Potts , Michael Schmischke

Compositional data (i.e., data comprising random variables that sum up to a constant) arises in many applications including microbiome studies, chemical ecology, political science, and experimental designs. Yet when compositional data serve…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Ritwik Bhaduri , Siyuan Ma , Lucas Janson

Prediction, where observed data is used to quantify uncertainty about a future observation, is a fundamental problem in statistics. Prediction sets with coverage probability guarantees are a common solution, but these do not provide…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-22 Leonardo Cella , Ryan Martin

There is a growing need for the ability to analyse interval-valued data. However, existing descriptive frameworks to achieve this ignore the process by which interval-valued data are typically constructed; namely by the aggregation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-08 Xin Zhang , Boris Beranger , Scott A. Sisson

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-03 Cynthia Dwork , Vitaly Feldman , Moritz Hardt , Toniann Pitassi , Omer Reingold , Aaron Roth

In this paper, we develop invariance-based procedures for testing and inference in high-dimensional regression models. These procedures, also known as randomization tests, provide several important advantages. First, for the global null…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-27 Wenxuan Guo , Panos Toulis

Evidential reasoning is cast as the problem of simplifying the evidence-hypothesis relation and constructing combination formulas that possess certain testable properties. Important classes of evidence as identifiers, annihilators, and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Yizong Cheng , Rangasami L. Kashyap

We propose a belief-formation model where agents attempt to discriminate between two theories, and where the asymmetry in strength between confirming and disconfirming evidence tilts beliefs in favor of theories that generate strong (and…

General Economics · Economics 2023-10-13 Olivier Compte

Reproducibility, the ability to recompute results, and replicability, the chances other experimenters will achieve a consistent result, are two foundational characteristics of successful scientific research. Consistent findings from…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-23 Jeffrey T. Leek , Roger D. Peng

The ETS has recently released new estimates of validities of the GRE for predicting cumulative graduate GPA. They average in the middle thirties - twice as high as those previously reported by a number of independent investigators. It is…

Applications · Statistics 2009-08-20 Peter H. Schonemann , Moritz Heene

In data analysis, unexpected results often prompt researchers to revisit their procedures to identify potential issues. While some researchers may struggle to identify the root causes, experienced researchers can often quickly diagnose…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-06 H. Sherry Zhang , Roger D. Peng

Interpretable classification models are built with the purpose of providing a comprehensible description of the decision logic to an external oversight agent. When considered in isolation, a decision tree, a set of classification rules, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Riccardo Guidotti , Salvatore Ruggieri