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We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…
The Hawkes process is a versatile stochastic model for point patterns that exhibit self-excitation, that is, the property that an event occurrence increases the rate of occurrence for some period of time in the future. We present a Bayesian…
An extension of the Hawkes model where the productivity is variable is considered. In particular, the case is considered where each point may have its own productivity and a simple analytic formula is derived for the maximum likelihood…
We propose a Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Process for modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics. The proposed model extends continuous-time neural Hawkes processes by integrating spatial…
Systems of interacting particles or agents have wide applications in many disciplines such as Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Economics. These systems are governed by interaction laws, which are often unknown: estimating them from…
We consider a nonlinear multivariate Hawkes process having a variable length memory which allows to describe the activity of a neuronal network by its membrane potential. We propose a graphical construction of the process and we construct,…
Adaptive and interacting Markov Chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a novel class of non-Markovian algorithms aimed at improving the simulation efficiency for complicated target distributions. In this paper, we study a general…
This is the second part of our work on Multivariate Quadratic Hawkes (MQHawkes) Processes, devoted to the calibration of the model defined and studied analytically in Aubrun, C., Benzaquen, M., & Bouchaud, J. P., Quantitative Finance,…
We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…
In the present work, we introduce a general class of mean-field interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modelling the reciprocal interactions between two neuronal populations, one excitatory and one inhibitory. The model incorporates two…
In the domain of algorithmic decision-making, non-Markovian dynamics manifest as a significant impediment, especially for paradigms such as Reinforcement Learning (RL), thereby exerting far-reaching consequences on the advancement and…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification.…
Hawkes processes have seen a number of applications in finance, due to their ability to capture event clustering behaviour typically observed in financial systems. Given a calibrated Hawkes process, of concern is the statistical fit to…
In this paper, we describe a novel unsupervised learning scheme for accelerating the solution of a family of mixed integer programming (MIP) problems. Distinct substantially from existing learning-to-optimize methods, our proposal seeks to…
This article presents a Hawkes process model with Markovian baseline intensities for high-frequency order book data modeling. We classify intraday order book trading events into a range of categories based on their order types and the price…
The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…
Constructing fast and accurate surrogate models is a key ingredient for making robust predictions in many topics. We introduce a new model, the Multiparameter Eigenvalue Problem (MEP) emulator. The new method connects emulators and can make…
Up to now, the nonparametric analysis of multidimensional continuous-time Markov processes has focussed strongly on specific model choices, mostly related to symmetry of the semigroup. While this approach allows to study the performance of…