Related papers: A Markov-switching model for heat waves
We introduce a Langevin equation characterized by a time dependent drift. By assuming a temporal power-law dependence of the drift we show that a great variety of behavior is observed in the dynamics of the variance of the process. In…
Systems out of equilibrium, in stationary as well as in nonstationary regimes, display a linear response to energy impulses simply expressed as the sum of two specific temporal correlation functions. There is a natural interpretation of…
In the present work, the discrete flame model [1] is augmented by introducing the thermal inertia of particles in the preheating zone. The effect of particle thermal inertia on flame speed, propagation limits, and near-limits dynamics of…
The characterization of heat and momentum fluxes in wall-bounded turbulence is of paramount importance for a plethora of applications, ranging from engineering to Earth sciences. However, how the turbulent structures associated with…
Markov State Modeling has recently emerged as a key technique for analyzing rare events in thermal equilibrium molecular simulations and finding metastable states. Here we export this technique to the study of friction, where strongly…
We establish a theory for multivariate extreme value analysis of dynamical systems. Namely, we provide conditions adapted to the dynamical setting which enable the study of dependence between extreme values of the components of…
Civilization produces knowledge, which acts as the driving force of its development. A macro-model of civilization that accounts for the effect of knowledge production on population, energy consumption and environmental conditions is…
A phenomenological model describing the time-frequency dependence of the power spectrum of thin plates vibrating in a wave turbulence regime, is introduced. The model equation contains as basic solutions the Rayleigh-Jeans equipartition of…
We propose a physics-aware machine learning method to time-accurately predict extreme events in a turbulent flow. The method combines two radically different approaches: empirical modelling based on reservoir computing, which learns the…
We present a statistical analysis based on the height and return time probabilities of high amplitude wave events in both focusing and defocusing Manakov systems. We find that analytical rational/semirational solutions, associated with…
Extreme near-surface moist heat and severe convective storms are among the leading causes of weather-related damages worldwide. Here, we show that episodes of extreme moist heat and severe convection frequently co-occur across midlatitude…
The modulational instability of waves in a medium under the action of an external monochromatic force and dissipation is considered. The model which describes the nonlinear stage of the modulation instability was constructed with using…
Markov switching models (MSMs) are probabilistic models that employ multiple sets of parameters to describe different dynamic regimes that a time series may exhibit at different periods of time. The switching mechanism between regimes is…
In environmental sciences, it is often of interest to assess whether the dependence between extreme measurements has changed during the observation period. The aim of this work is to propose a statistical test that is particularly sensitive…
Asymptotic properties of Markov Processes, such as steady state probabilities or hazard rate for absorbing states can be efficiently calculated by means of linear algebra even for large-scale problems. This paper discusses the methods for…
Thermal Wave Model is used to study the strong self-consistent Plasma Wake Field interaction (transverse effects) between a strongly magnetized plasma and a relativistic electron/positron beam travelling along the external magnetic field,…
The evolution of multi-mode instabilities in a hypersonic boundary layer and their effects on aerodynamic heating are investigated. Experiments are conducted in a Mach 6 wind tunnel using Rayleigh-scattering flow visualization,…
Simple classical thermodynamic approach to the general description of metastable states is presented. It makes possible to calculate the explicit dependence of the Gibbs free energy on temperature, to calculate the heat capacity, the…
Many countries have experienced at least two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second wave is far more dangerous as distinct strains appear more harmful to human health, but it stems from the complacency about the first wave. This paper…
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…