Related papers: A Markov-switching model for heat waves
Wildfires pose an increasing threat to the safety and reliability of power systems, particularly in distribution networks located in fire-prone regions. To mitigate ignition risk from electrical infrastructure, utilities often employ safety…
Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output.…
We study the problem of radiative heat (Marshak) waves using advanced approximate approaches. Supersonic radiative Marshak waves that are propagating into a material are radiation dominated (i.e. hydrodynamic motion is negligible), and can…
The effects of mechanical generation of turbulent kinetic energy and buoyancy forces on the statistics of air temperature and velocity increments are experimentally investigated at the cross over from production to inertial range scales.…
This article introduces a dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model with explicit terms for the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Moreover, the model includes time-invariant site-specific constant…
Recent work on modeling influence propagation focus on progressive models, i.e., once a node is influenced (active) the node stays in that state and cannot become inactive. However, this assumption is unrealistic in many settings where…
In order to reach the supply/demand balance, electricity providers need to predict the demand and production of electricity at different time scales. This implies the need of modeling weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, solar…
HYGARCH model is basically used to model long-range dependence in volatility. We propose Markov switch smooth-transition HYGARCH model, where the volatility in each state is a time-dependent convex combination of GARCH and FIGARCH. This…
In this contribution to the VIEWS 2023 prediction challenge, we propose using an observed Markov model for making predictions of densities of fatalities from armed conflicts. The observed Markov model can be conceptualized as a two-stage…
We develop two models for the temporal evolution of extreme events of multivariate $k$th order Markov processes. The foundation of our methodology lies in the conditional extremes model of Heffernan & Tawn (2004), and it naturally extends…
Regimes of chemical reaction wave propagating in reactive gaseous mixtures, whose chemistry is governed by chain-branching kinetics, are studied depending on the characteristics of a transient thermal energy deposition localized in a finite…
In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum…
We develop a class of exponential-family point processes based on a latent social space to model the coevolution of social structure and behavior over time. Temporal dynamics are modeled as a discrete Markov process specified through…
Many new models of wave turbulence -- frozen, mesoscopic, laminated, decaying, sand-pile, etc. -- have been developed in the last decade aiming to solve problems seemingly not solvable in the framework of the existing wave turbulence theory…
We study the Markovian process of a multi-mode open system connecting with a non-equilibrium environment, which consists of several heat baths with different temperatures. As an illustration, we study the steady state of three linearly…
In this paper a new method for heat load prediction in district energy systems is proposed. The method uses a nominal model for the prediction of the outdoor temperature dependent space heating load, and a data driven latent variable model…
The concept of environmental interface is defined and analyzed from the point of view of the possible source of non-standard behaviour. The energy balance equation is written for the interface where all kinds of energy transfer occur. It is…
Solar flares, email exchanges, and many natural or social systems exhibit bursty dynamics, with periods of intense activity separated by long inactivity. These patterns often follow power- law distributions in inter-event intervals or event…
We explore layered strongly correlated materials as a platform to identify and control unconventional heat transfer phenomena. We demonstrate that these systems can be tailored to sustain a wide spectrum of heat transport regimes, ranging…
We study the latent heat of the liquid-gas phase transition in symmetric nuclear matter using self-consistent mean-field calculations with a few Skyrme forces. The temperature dependence of the latent heat is rather independent of the…