Related papers: A Markov-switching model for heat waves

There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…

The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…

In many applications of time series models, such as climate analysis and social media analysis, we are often interested in extreme events, such as heatwave, wind gust, and burst of topics. These time series data usually exhibit a…

Due to climate change, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, with western Europe experiencing the strongest trends in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Part of the temperature trends are caused by circulation changes, which…

Research on heat waves (periods of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity) is a newly emerging research topic within the field of climate change research with high relevance for the whole of society. In this…

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…

Heatwaves are known to arise from the interplay between large-scale climate variability, synoptic weather patterns and regional to local scale surface processes. While recent research has made important progress for each individual…

We consider the evolution of a tight binding wave packet propagating in a time dependent potential. If the potential evolves according to a stationary Markov process, we show that the square amplitude of the wave packet converges, after…

Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…

This paper discusses some aspects referring to the characterization and modelling of the resilience of distribution systems in the presence of heat waves. The aim is to identify the specific features that can lead to more detailed modelling…

Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…

Discrete latent space models have recently achieved performance on par with their continuous counterparts in deep variational inference. While they still face various implementation challenges, these models offer the opportunity for a…

Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system…

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot…

We investigate the statistics and dynamics of extreme heat waves over different areas of Europe. We find heatwaves over France and Scandinavia to be associated with recurrent wavenumber three teleconnection patterns in surface temperature…

We propose a novel strategy for multivariate extreme value index estimation. In applications such as finance, volatility and risk present in the components of a multivariate time series are often driven by the same underlying factors, such…

Because of the impact of extreme heat waves and heat domes on society and biodiversity, their study is a key challenge. We specifically study long-lasting extreme heat waves, which are among the most important for climate impacts. Physics…

Extreme values of real phenomena are events that occur with low frequency, but can have a large impact on real life. These are, in many practical problems, high-dimensional by nature (e.g. Tawn, 1990; Coles and Tawn, 1991). To study these…

This study investigates how different spatiotemporal temperature models affect the estimation of heat-related mortality in Lazio, Italy (2008--2022). First, we compare three methods to reconstruct daily maximum temperature at the…