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This paper considers a Cram\'er-Lundberg risk setting, where the components of the underlying model change over time. These components could be thought of as the claim arrival rate, the claim-size distribution, and the premium rate, but we…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-10 Corina Constantinescu , Guusje Delsing , Michel Mandjes , Leonardo Rojas Nandayapa

We study the effect of drift in pure-jump transaction-level models for asset prices in continuous time, driven by point processes. The drift is as-sumed to arise from a nonzero mean in the efficient shock series. It follows that the drift…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-07 Wen Cao , Clifford Hurvich , Philippe Soulier

Small-space and large-time estimates and asymptotic expansion of the distribution function and (the derivatives of) the density function of hitting times of points for symmetric L\'evy processes are studied. The L\'evy measure is assumed to…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-15 Tomasz Juszczyszyn , Mateusz Kwaśnicki

Given a sample from a discretely observed L\'evy process $X=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ of the finite jump activity, the problem of nonparametric estimation of the L\'evy density $\rho$ corresponding to the process $X$ is studied. An estimator of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-17 Shota Gugushvili

We introduce the concept of no-arbitrage in a credit risk market under ambiguity considering an intensity-based framework. We assume the default intensity is not exactly known but lies between an upper and lower bound. By means of the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-04-25 Tolulope Fadina , Thorsten Schmidt

The time evolution of random variables with L\'evy statistics has the ability to develop jumps, displaying very different behaviors from continuously fluctuating cases. Such patterns appear in an ever broadening range of examples including…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-02-25 Kamil Kaleta , József Lőrinczi

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-19 Pascal Kündig , Fabio Sigrist

We prove several necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of (smooth) transition probability densities for L\'evy processes and isotropic L\'evy processes. Under some mild conditions on the characteristic exponent we calculate…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-31 V. Knopova , R. L. Schilling

The first-passage time is a key concept in stochastic modeling, representing the time at which a process first reaches a specified threshold. In this work, we consider a jump-diffusion (JD) model with a time-dependent threshold, providing a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-11-04 Sascha Desmettre , Devika Khurana , Amira Meddah

In this paper we develop structural first passage models (AT1P and SBTV) with time-varying volatility and characterized by high tractability, moving from the original work of Brigo and Tarenghi (2004, 2005) [19] [20] and Brigo and Morini…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2009-12-23 Damiano Brigo , Massimo Morini , Marco Tarenghi

We consider a multivariate default system where random environmental information is available. We study the dynamics of the system in a general setting and adopt the point of view of change of probability measures. We also make a link with…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-21 Nicole El Karoui , Monique Jeanblanc , Ying Jiao

This paper stidies the first passage times to constant boundaries for mixed-exponential jump diffusion processes. Explicit solutions of the Laplace transforms of the distribution of the first passage times, the joint distribution of the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-06-18 Chuancun Yin , Yuzhen Wen , Zhaojun Zong , Ying Shen

We consider stochastic control systems affected by a fast mean reverting volatility $Y(t)$ driven by a pure jump L\'evy process. Motivated by a large literature on financial models, we assume that $Y(t)$ evolves at a faster time scale…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-27 Martino Bardi , Annalisa Cesaroni , Andrea Scotti

In this paper,we consider a macro approximation of the flow of a risk reserve, The process is observed at discrete time points. Because we cannot directly observe each jump time and size then we will make use of a technique for identifying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-22 Chunhao Cai , Junyi Guo , Honglong You

In this paper we investigate jump-diffusion processes in random environments which are given as the weak solutions to SDE's. We formulate conditions ensuring existence and uniqueness in law of solutions. We investigate Markov property. To…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-07-19 Jacek Jakubowski , Mariusz Niewęgłowski

Trust is the invisible glue that holds together the fabric of societies, economic systems, and political institutions. Yet, its dynamics-especially in real-world settings remain unpredictable and difficult to control. While classical trust…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-05 Mohamadali Berahman , Madjid Eshaghi Gordji

Volatility estimation based on high-frequency data is key to accurately measure and control the risk of financial assets. A L\'{e}vy process with infinite jump activity and microstructure noise is considered one of the simplest, yet…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-12 Qi Wang , José E. Figueroa-López , Todd Kuffner

The two main approaches in credit risk are the structural approach pioneered in Merton (1974) and the reduced-form framework proposed in Jarrow & Turnbull (1995) and in Artzner & Delbaen (1995). The goal of this article is to provide a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-14 Frank Gehmlich , Thorsten Schmidt

In this paper, we propose a new threshold-kernel jump-detection method for jump-diffusion processes, which iteratively applies thresholding and kernel methods in an approximately optimal way to achieve improved finite-sample performance. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-07 José E. Figueroa-López , Cheng Li , Jeffrey Nisen

The implied volatility skew has received relatively little attention in the literature on short-term asymptotics for financial models with jumps, despite its importance in model selection and calibration. We rectify this by providing…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-12-15 José E. Figueroa-López , Sveinn Ólafsson