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Most work in causal inference considers deterministic interventions that set each unit's treatment to some fixed value. However, under positivity violations these interventions can lead to non-identification, inefficiency, and effects with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-20 Edward H. Kennedy

Structural Causal Models (SCMs) offer a principled framework to reason about interventions and support out-of-distribution generalization, which are key goals in scientific discovery. However, the task of learning SCMs from observed data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Divyat Mahajan , Jannes Gladrow , Agrin Hilmkil , Cheng Zhang , Meyer Scetbon

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-14 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

Marginal structural models have been widely used in causal inference to estimate mean outcomes under either a static or a prespecified set of treatment decision rules. This approach requires imposing a working model for the mean outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-27 Cuong Pham , Benjamin R. Baer , Ashkan Ertefaie

Data transformations are essential for broad applicability of parametric regression models. However, for Bayesian analysis, joint inference of the transformation and model parameters typically involves restrictive parametric transformations…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-29 Daniel R. Kowal , Bohan Wu

In the analysis of cluster data, the regression coefficients are frequently assumed to be the same across all clusters. This hampers the ability to study the varying impacts of factors on each cluster. In this paper, a semiparametric model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-25 Wenyang Zhang , Jianqing Fan , Yan Sun

We develop semiparametrically efficient inference for kernel measures of noise heterogeneity in additive noise models. In many applications, the regression function is estimated using flexible machine learning methods. Downstream procedures…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Jakub Wornbard , Zikai Shen , Dimitri Meunier , Arthur Gretton

Classical causal inference assumes treatments meant for a given unit do not have an effect on other units. This assumption is violated in interference problems, where new types of spillover causal effects arise, and causal inference becomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Ilya Shpitser , Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Ryan Andrews

A standard assumption for causal inference about the joint effects of time-varying treatment is that one has measured sufficient covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-04 Andrew Ying , Wang Miao , Xu Shi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal inference in observational panel data has become a central concern in economics,policy analysis,and the broader social sciences.To address the core contradiction where traditional difference-in-differences (DID) struggles with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-23 Yile Yu , Anzhi Xu , Yi Wang

One of the central elements of any causal inference is an object called structural causal model (SCM), which represents a collection of mechanisms and exogenous sources of random variation of the system under investigation (Pearl, 2000). An…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-05 Kevin Xia , Kai-Zhan Lee , Yoshua Bengio , Elias Bareinboim

In this article, we propose two classes of semiparametric mixture regression models with single-index for model based clustering. Unlike many semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models that can only be applied to low dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-15 Sijia Xiang , Weixin Yao

We formulate a general framework for building structural causal models (SCMs) with deep learning components. The proposed approach employs normalising flows and variational inference to enable tractable inference of exogenous noise…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Nick Pawlowski , Daniel C. Castro , Ben Glocker

It is well known that the minimax rates of convergence of nonparametric density and regression function estimation of a random variable measured with error is much slower than the rate in the error free case. Surprisingly, we show that if…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-21 Fei Jiang , Yanyuan Ma , Raymond J. Carroll

Inference in hierarchical nonlinear models needs careful consideration about targeting parameters that have either a conditional or population-average interpretation. For the special case of mixed-effects nonlinear sigmoidal models we…

Applications · Statistics 2017-07-11 Daniel Gerhard , Christian Ritz

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

We investigate causal inference in the asymptotic regime as the number of variables approaches infinity using an information-theoretic framework. We define structural entropy of a causal model in terms of its description complexity measured…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-21 Sridhar Mahadevan

This paper presents uniform convergence rates for kernel regression estimators, in the setting of a structural nonlinear cointegrating regression model. We generalise the existing literature in three ways. First, the domain to which these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-08 James A. Duffy

Skepticism about the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, also known as exchangeability, is often warranted in making causal inferences from observational data; because exchangeability hinges on an investigator's ability to accurately…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Yifan Cui , Hongming Pu , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen