Related papers: A stochastic approach for quantifying immigrant in…
We consider the stochastic ranking process with space-time dependent jump rates for the particles. The process is a simplified model of the time evolution of the rankings such as sales ranks at online bookstores. We prove that the joint…
Stochastic simulation approaches perform probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks by estimating the probability of an event based on the frequency that the event occurs in a set of simulation trials. This paper describes the evidence…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
To increase statistical efficiency in a randomized experiment, researchers often use stratification (i.e., blocking) in the design stage. However, conventional practices of stratification fail to exploit valuable information about the…
Since its introduction, some sixty years ago, the Montroll-Weiss continuous time random walk has found numerous applications due its ease of use and ability to describe both regular and anomalous diffusion. Yet, despite its broad…
Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…
Stochastic dynamical systems allow modelling of transitions induced by disturbances, in particular from an attracting equilibrium and crossing the stable manifold of a saddle. In the small-noise limit, the probability of such transitions is…
The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to…
Understanding demographic and migrational patterns constitutes a great challenge. Millions of individual decisions, motivated by economic, political, demographic, rational, and/or emotional reasons underlie the high complexity of…
Stochastic averaging allows for the reduction of the dimension and complexity of stochastic dynamical systems with multiple time scales, replacing fast variables with statistically equivalent stochastic processes in order to analyze…
We present a model for the dynamics of a population of bacteria with a continuum of traits, who compete for resources and exchange horizontally (transfer) an otherwise vertically inherited trait with possible mutations. Competition…
Unprecedented human mobility has driven the rapid urbanization around the world. In China, the fraction of population dwelling in cities increased from 17.9% to 52.6% between 1978 and 2012. Such large-scale migration poses challenges for…
Nowadays, in our globalized world,the local and intercountry movements of population have been increased. This situation makes it important for host countries to do right predictions for the future population of their native people as well…
We study how environmental stochasticity influences the long-term population size in certain one- and two-species models. The difficulty is that even when one can prove that there is persistence, it is usually impossible to say anything…
In this paper, we propose fitting unobserved component models to represent the dynamic evolution of bivariate systems of centre and log-range temperatures obtained monthly from minimum/maximum temperatures observed at a given location. In…
Measuring and forecasting migration patterns, and how they change over time, has important implications for understanding broader population trends, for designing policy effectively and for allocating resources. However, data on migration…
For a stochastic system, its evolution from one state to another can have a large number of possible paths. Non-uniformity in the field of system variables leads the local dynamics in state transition varies considerably from path to path…
Two powerful and complementary experimental approaches are commonly used to study the cell cycle and cell biology: One class of experiments characterizes the statistics (or demographics) of an unsynchronized exponentially-growing…
The influence of migration on the stochastic dynamics of subdivided populations is still an open issue in various evolutionary models. We develop here a self-consistent mean-field-like method in order to determine the effects of migration…
We introduce the Hawkes process with renewal immigration and make its statistical estimation possible with two Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithms. The standard Hawkes process introduces immigrant points via a Poisson process, and each…