Related papers: Efficient simulation of tail probabilities for sum…
We study estimation of a multivariate function $f:{\bf R}^d \to {\bf R}$ when the observations are available from function $Af$, where $A$ is a known linear operator. Both the Gaussian white noise model and density estimation are studied.…
We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation for reinforcement learning, where the goal is to estimate the expected reward of a target policy $\pi$ using offline data collected by running a logging policy $\mu$. Standard…
Statistical analysis of max-stable processes used to model spatial extremes has been limited by the difficulty in calculating the joint likelihood function. This precludes all standard likelihood-based approaches, including Bayesian…
Recently significant progress has been made in vehicle prediction and planning algorithms for autonomous driving. However, it remains quite challenging for an autonomous vehicle to plan its trajectory in complex scenarios when it is…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…
Odds ratios obtained from logistic models fail to approximate risk ratios with common outcomes, leading to potential misinterpretations about exposure effects by practitioners. This article investigates the complementary log-log models as a…
We present an analytical technique to compute the probability of rare events in which the largest eigenvalue of a random matrix is atypically large (i.e.\ the right tail of its large deviations). The results also transfer to the left tail…
We consider the problem of probabilistic quantification of dynamical systems that have heavy-tailed characteristics. These heavy-tailed features are associated with rare transient responses due to the occurrence of internal instabilities.…
In this article, by using composite asymmetric least squares (CALS) and empirical likelihood, we propose a two-step procedure to estimate the conditional value at risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES) for the GARCH series.…
Our goal in this paper is to propose an alternative risk measure which takes into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between random variables. This new notion of risk measures, that we call Copula Conditional Tail…
In this paper, we propose a novel Risk-Aware Local Trajectory Planner (RALTPER) for autonomous vehicles in complex environments characterized by Gaussian uncertainty. The proposed method integrates risk awareness and trajectory planning by…
In this letter, we present an improved hazard rate twisting technique for the estimation of the probability that a sum of independent but not necessarily identically distributed subexponential Random Variables (RVs) exceeds a given…
We make use of the empirical process theory to approximate the adapted Hill estimator, for censored data, in terms of Gaussian processes. Then, we derive its asymptotic normality, only under the usual second-order condition of regular…
Motivated by a bidimensional discrete-time risk model in insurance, we study the second-order asymptotics for two kinds of tail probabilities of the stochastic discounted value of aggregate net losses including two business lines. These are…
To capture the extremal behaviour of complex environmental phenomena in practice, flexi\-ble techniques for modelling tail behaviour are required. In this paper, we introduce a variety of such methods, which were used by the Lancopula…
Complex simulator-based models are now routinely used to perform inference across the sciences and engineering, but existing inference methods are often unable to account for outliers and other extreme values in data which occur due to…
We consider the problem of estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio, where the future loss is expressed as a conditional expectation. Since the conditional expectation is intractable in most cases, one may…
We introduce a new type of estimator for the spectral tail process of a regularly varying time series. The approach is based on a characterizing invariance property of the spectral tail process, which is incorporated into the new estimator…
Systemic risk measures quantify the potential risk to an individual financial constituent arising from the distress of entire financial system. As a generalization of two widely applied risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall,…
We present an iterative framework to improve the amortized approximations of posterior distributions in the context of Bayesian inverse problems, which is inspired by loop-unrolled gradient descent methods and is theoretically grounded in…