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Related papers: Tail asymptotics of randomly weighted large risks

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This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of higher-order conditional tail moments, which quantify the contribution of individual losses in the event of systemic collapse. The study is conducted within a framework comprising two…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Zhangting Chen , Bingjie Wang , Dongya Cheng

In the context of communication networks, the framework of stochastic event graphs allows a modeling of control mechanisms induced by the communication protocol and an analysis of its performances. We concentrate on the logarithmic tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Marc Lelarge

If the Euclidean norm is strongly concentrated with respect to a measure, the average distribution of an average marginal of this measure has Gaussian asymptotics that captures tail behaviour. If the marginals of the measure have…

Metric Geometry · Mathematics 2007-08-28 Sasha Sodin

In this paper, we compute multivariate tail risk probabilities where the marginal risks are heavy-tailed and the dependence structure is a Gaussian copula. The marginal heavy-tailed risks are modeled using regular variation which leads to a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-12 Bikramjit Das , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann

This note is devoted to the study of the maximum of the excursion of a random walk with negative drift and light-tailed increments. More precisely, we determine the local asymptotics of the joint distribution of the length, maximum and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-08 Elena Perfilev , Vitali Wachtel

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positive associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-14 Juan-Juan Cai , Eni Musta

Consider a random walk $S=(S_n:n\geq 0)$ that is ``perturbed'' by a stationary sequence $(\xi_n:n\geq 0)$ to produce the process $(S_n+\xi_n:n\geq0)$. This paper is concerned with computing the distribution of the all-time maximum…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Victor F. Araman , Peter W. Glynn

In this work, we propose a class of importance sampling (IS) estimators for estimating the right tail probability of a sum of continuous random variables based on a change of variables to $L^1$ polar coordinates in which the radial and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-19 Thomas Taimre , Patrick J. Laub

When an explicit expression for a probability distribution function $F(x)$ can not be found, asymptotic properties of the tail probability function $\bar{F}(x)=1-F(x)$ are very valuable, since they provide approximations or bounds for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-16 Bin Liu , Yiqiang Q. Zhao

Assume that claims in a portfolio of insurance contracts are described by independent and identically distributed random variables with regularly varying tails and occur according to a near mixed Poisson process. We provide a collection of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-26 Hansjoerg Albrecher , Christian Robert , Jef Teugels

Risk measures like Marginal Expected Shortfall and Marginal Mean Excess quantify conditional risk and in particular, aid in the understanding of systemic risk. In many such scenarios, models exhibiting heavy tails in the margins and…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-07 Bikramjit Das , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann

Asymptotic expansions are derived for the tail distribution of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means and arbitrary variances, and more generally the sum of independent copies of such random variables.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Robert E. Gaunt , Zixin Ye

The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-15 Quirin Vogel

The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-10 Christian Y. Robert , Johan Segers

By using a probabilistic technique based on the exponential change of measure we find a precise tail asymptotic behavior of some perpetuities with distributions close to the Dickman distribution.

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-17 Alexander Iksanov , Oleh Iksanov

In this paper, according to a certain criterion, we divide the exponential distribution class into three subclasses. One of them is closely related to the regular-variation-tailed distribution class, so it is called the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-30 Zhaolei Cui , Edward Omey , Wenyuan Wang , Yuebao Wang

This article studies asymptotic approximations of ruin probabilities of multivariate random walks with heavy-tailed increments. Under our assumptions, the distributions of the increments are closely connected to multivariate…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-12 Miriam Hägele

We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Zbigniew Palmowski , Stan Zachary

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the product tail probability $ \mathbb{P}(\xi_1\cdots\xi_N \geqslant n), $ where $\{\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_N\}$ is a finite collection of independent Poisson random variables with positive…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Džiugas Chvoinikov , Jonas Šiaulys

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of the tail probability of the number of customers in the steady-state $M/G/1$ retrial queue with Bernoulli schedule, under the assumption that the service time distribution has a regularly…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-16 Bin Liu , Yiqiang Q. Zhao