Related papers: MVA: Initial Margin Valuation Adjustment by Replic…
We propose a new, nonparametric method for multivariate regression subject to convexity or concavity constraints on the response function. Convexity constraints are common in economics, statistics, operations research, financial engineering…
Invariant graph representation learning aims to learn the invariance among data from different environments for out-of-distribution generalization on graphs. As the graph environment partitions are usually expensive to obtain, augmenting…
In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for bounding the CVaR of a random variable $X$ using another related random variable $Y$, under assumptions on their cumulative and density functions. Our results yield practical tools for…
Estimation of the value-at-risk (VaR) of a large portfolio of assets is an important task for financial institutions. As the joint log-returns of asset prices can often be projected to a latent space of a much smaller dimension, the use of…
Planning in Markov decision processes (MDPs) typically optimises the expected cost. However, optimising the expectation does not consider the risk that for any given run of the MDP, the total cost received may be unacceptably high. An…
We study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with a fixed risk tolerance $\tau$. Prior theoretical work studying risk-sensitive RL focuses on the tabular Markov Decision…
Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has become a widely recognized paradigm to combine parametric memory with non-parametric memories. An RAG model consists of two serial connecting components (retriever and generator). A major challenge…
Despite the rise to fame of incremental variance-reduced methods in recent years, their use in nonsmooth optimization is still limited to few simple cases. This is due to the fact that existing methods require to evaluate the proximity…
The multivariate coefficient of variation (MCV) is an attractive and easy-to-interpret effect size for the dispersion in multivariate data. Recently, the first inference methods for the MCV were proposed by Ditzhaus and Smaga (2022) for…
The marginal maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation problem, which calculates the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of a subset of variables with the remaining variables marginalized, is an important inference problem…
Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) research is inherently computationally expensive and it is often difficult to obtain a sufficient number of experiment samples to test hypotheses and make robust statistical claims. Furthermore,…
In this paper we address the problem of decision making within a Markov decision process (MDP) framework where risk and modeling errors are taken into account. Our approach is to minimize a risk-sensitive conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR)…
New versions of the set-valued average value at risk for multivariate risks are introduced by generalizing the well-known certainty equivalent representation to the set-valued case. The first "regulator" version is independent from any…
In this paper we introduce a novel approach to risk estimation based on nonlinear factor models - the "StressVaR" (SVaR). Developed to evaluate the risk of hedge funds, the SVaR appears to be applicable to a wide range of investments. Its…
Wrong-way risk in counterparty and funding exposures is most dramatic in the situations of systemic crises and tails events. A consistent model of wrong-way risk (WWR) is developed here with the probability-weighted addition of tail events…
We study cash-flow forecasting for derivatives used in liquidity management and clarify its relation to risk-neutral valuation and replication. While it is well known that expectations under different measures (e.g., $\mathbb{P}$ vs.…
We propose a parameter-free model for estimating the price or valuation of financial derivatives like options, forwards and futures using non-supervised learning networks and Monte Carlo. Although some arbitrage-based pricing formula…
This paper develops an XVA (costs) analysis of centrally cleared trading, parallel to the one that has been developed in the last years for bilateral transactions. We introduce a dynamic framework that incorporates the sequence of…
This article focuses on covariance estimation for multi-view data. Popular approaches rely on factor-analytic decompositions that have shared and view-specific latent factors. Posterior computation is conducted via expensive and brittle…
Credit Valuation Adjustment is a balance sheet item which is nowadays subject to active risk management by specialized traders. However, one of the most important risk factors, which is the vector of default intensities of the counterparty,…