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Flexible models for probability distributions are an essential ingredient in many machine learning tasks. We develop and investigate a new class of probability distributions, which we call a Squared Neural Family (SNEFY), formed by squaring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Russell Tsuchida , Cheng Soon Ong , Dino Sejdinovic

Variational Bayes (VB) is rapidly becoming a popular tool for Bayesian inference in statistical modeling. However, the existing VB algorithms are restricted to cases where the likelihood is tractable, which precludes the use of VB in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-05 Minh-Ngoc Tran , David J. Nott , Robert Kohn

Iterative imputation, in which variables are imputed one at a time each given a model predicting from all the others, is a popular technique that can be convenient and flexible, as it replaces a potentially difficult multivariate modeling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-04-04 Jingchen Liu , Andrew Gelman , Jennifer Hill , Yu-Sung Su

We consider exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes -- temporal processes taking values over a state-space$\mathcal{S}$ with at least one absorbing failure state $\flat \in \mathcal{S}$ that satisfy natural invariance properties…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 Walter Dempsey

The distribution of block maxima of sequences of independent and identically-distributed random variables is used to model extreme values in many disciplines. The traditional extreme value (EV) theory derives a closed-form expression for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Marco Marani , Enrico Zorzetto

The extended de Finetti theorem characterizes exchangeable infinite random sequences as conditionally i.i.d. and shows that the apparently weaker distributional symmetry of spreadability is equivalent to exchangeability. Our main result is…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2008-06-24 Claus Köstler

A new empirical Bayes approach to variable selection in the context of generalized linear models is developed. The proposed algorithm scales to situations in which the number of putative explanatory variables is very large, possibly much…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-29 Haim Bar , James Booth , Martin T. Wells

The sum of independent, but not necessary identically distributed, exponential random variables follows hypoexponential distribution. We focus on a particular case when all, but one rate parameters of the exponential variables are…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-04 George Yanev

Explainable boosting machines (EBMs) are popular "glass-box" models that learn a set of univariate functions using boosting trees. These achieve explainability through visualizations of each feature's effect. However, unlike linear model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Haimo Fang , Kevin Tan , Jonathan Pipping-Gamon , Giles Hooker

Analysis of multivariate data sets from e.g. microarray studies frequently results in lists of genes which are associated with some response of interest. The biological interpretation is often complicated by the statistical instability of…

Applications · Statistics 2015-03-19 Charlotte Soneson , Magnus Fontes

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) are an important class of probabilistic models, also known as random fields and undirected graphical models. EBMs are un-normalized and thus radically different from other popular self-normalized probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Zhijian Ou

Exchangeability is a desired statistical property of network ensembles requiring their invariance upon relabelling of the nodes. However combining sparsity of network ensembles with exchangeability is challenging. Here we propose a…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2022-04-14 Ginestra Bianconi

In an array of random variables, each row can be regarded as a single, sequence-valued random variable. In this way, the array is seen as a sequence of sequences. Such an array is said to be row exchangeable if each row is an exchangeable…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-01 Evan Donald , Jason Swanson

In this work we analyze the concept of swap-invariance, which is a weaker variant of exchangeability. A random vector $\xi$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$ is called swap-invariant if $\,{\mathbf E}\,\big| \!\sum_j u_j \xi_j \big|\,$ is invariant under…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-06 Felix Nagel

Exponential families are the workhorses of parametric modelling theory. One reason for their popularity is their associated inference theory, which is very clean, both from a theoretical and a computational point of view. One way in which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-09-14 Karim Anaya-Izquierdo , Paul Marriott

We study e-values for quantifying evidence against exchangeability and general invariance of a random variable under a compact group. We start by characterizing such e-values, and explaining how they nest traditional group invariance tests…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Nick W. Koning

An interesting phenomenon arises: Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) sometimes outperforms methods specifically designed for out-of-distribution tasks. This motivates an investigation into the reasons behind such behavior beyond algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Hong Zheng , Fei Teng

An explosion of high-throughput DNA sequencing in the past decade has led to a surge of interest in population-scale inference with whole-genome data. Recent work in population genetics has centered on designing inference methods for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-07 Jeffrey Chan , Valerio Perrone , Jeffrey P. Spence , Paul A. Jenkins , Sara Mathieson , Yun S. Song

Random graph models have played a dominant role in the theoretical study of networked systems. The Poisson random graph of Erdos and Renyi, in particular, as well as the so-called configuration model, have served as the starting point for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-12-03 M. E. J. Newman , Travis Martin

The q-Gaussians are discussed from the point of view of variance mixtures of normals and exchangeability. For each q< 3, there is a q-Gaussian distribution that maximizes the Tsallis entropy under suitable constraints. This paper shows that…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-14 Marjorie G. Hahn , Xinxin Jiang , Sabir Umarov
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