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We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for sparse Gaussian graphical modeling of multivariate time series. We account for temporal correlation in the data by assuming that observations are characterized by an underlying and unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Beniamino Hadj-Amar , Aaron M. Bornstein , Michele Guindani , Marina Vannucci

This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-12 S. H. Alizadeh , S. Rezakhah

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

The existence of latent variables in practical problems is common, for example when some variables are difficult or expensive to measure, or simply unknown. When latent variables are unaccounted for, structure learning for Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Ignacio Echave-Sustaeta Rodríguez , Frank Röttger

Fitting a graphical model to a collection of random variables given sample observations is a challenging task if the observed variables are influenced by latent variables, which can induce significant confounding statistical dependencies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-20 Armeen Taeb , Parikshit Shah , Venkat Chandrasekaran

The concept of a random process has been recently extended to graph signals, whereby random graph processes are a class of multivariate stochastic processes whose coefficients are matrices with a \textit{graph-topological} structure. The…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-13 Thiernithi Variddhisai , Danilo Mandic

Latent dynamics discovery is challenging in extracting complex dynamics from high-dimensional noisy neural data. Many dimensionality reduction methods have been widely adopted to extract low-dimensional, smooth and time-evolving latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-02 Qi She , Anqi Wu

Recent advances in the estimation of deep directed graphical models and recurrent networks let us contribute to the removal of a blind spot in the area of probabilistc modelling of time series. The proposed methods i) can infer distributed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-01 Justin Bayer , Christian Osendorfer

We address the problem to estimate a Kronecker graphical model corresponding to an autoregressive Gaussian stochastic process. The latter is completely described by the power spectral density function whose inverse has support which admits…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Mattia Zorzi

This work proposes a scalable probabilistic latent variable model based on Gaussian processes (Lawrence, 2004) in the context of multiple observation spaces. We focus on an application in astrophysics where data sets typically contain both…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2025-02-28 Vidhi Lalchand , Anna-Christina Eilers

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Tobias Sutter , Arnab Ganguly , Heinz Koeppl

The Dynamical Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models provide an elegant non-parametric framework for learning the low dimensional representations of the high-dimensional time-series. Real world observational studies, however, are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-26 Thanh Le , Vasant Honavar

We propose a nonparametric procedure to achieve fast inference in generative graphical models when the number of latent states is very large. The approach is based on iterative latent variable preselection, where we alternate between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-06 Jacquelyn A. Shelton , Jan Gasthaus , Zhenwen Dai , Joerg Luecke , Arthur Gretton

A semi-parametric, non-linear regression model in the presence of latent variables is introduced. These latent variables can correspond to unmodeled phenomena or unmeasured agents in a complex networked system. This new formulation allows…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-29 Jonathan Mei , José M. F. Moura

Extremal graphical models encode the conditional independence structure of multivariate extremes and provide a powerful tool for quantifying the risk of rare events. Prior work on learning these graphs from data has focused on the setting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Sebastian Engelke , Armeen Taeb

Linear non-Gaussian causal models postulate that each random variable is a linear function of parent variables and non-Gaussian exogenous error terms. We study identification of the linear coefficients when such models contain latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Daniele Tramontano , Mathias Drton , Jalal Etesami

High dimensional time series are endemic in applications of machine learning such as robotics (sensor data), computational biology (gene expression data), vision (video sequences) and graphics (motion capture data). Practical nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-07-26 Andreas C. Damianou , Michalis K. Titsias , Neil D. Lawrence

Latent variable models with hidden binary units appear in various applications. Learning such models, in particular in the presence of noise, is a challenging computational problem. In this paper we propose a novel spectral approach to this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-28 Ariel Jaffe , Roi Weiss , Shai Carmi , Yuval Kluger , Boaz Nadler

An incremental/online state dynamic learning method is proposed for identification of the nonlinear Gaussian state space models. The method embeds the stochastic variational sparse Gaussian process as the probabilistic state dynamic model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-31 Vahid Bastani , Lucio Marcenaro , Carlo Regazzoni

This paper presents a new variable selection approach integrated with Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider a sparse projection of input variables and a general stationary covariance model that depends on the Euclidean distance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-26 Chiwoo Park , David J. Borth , Nicholas S. Wilson , Chad N. Hunter