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Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various applications, particularly in healthcare, where accurate predictions of future health trajectories can significantly impact clinical decision-making. Ensuring transparency and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Jeremy Qin

We define {\em predictive information} $I_{\rm pred} (T)$ as the mutual information between the past and the future of a time series. Three qualitatively different behaviors are found in the limit of large observation times $T$: $I_{\rm…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-11-10 William Bialek , Ilya Nemenman , Naftali Tishby

The use of available disturbance predictions within a nominal model predictive control formulation is studied. The main challenge that arises is the loss of recursive feasibility and stability guarantees when a persistent disturbance is…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-07-31 Pablo R Baldivieso-Monasterios , Paul A. Trodden

Time series modeling techniques based on deep learning have seen many advancements in recent years, especially in data-abundant settings and with the central aim of learning global models that can extract patterns across multiple time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Stephan Rabanser , Tim Januschowski , Valentin Flunkert , David Salinas , Jan Gasthaus

This paper presents a computationally efficient robust model predictive control law for discrete linear time invariant systems subject to additive disturbances that may depend on the state and/or input norms. Despite the dependency being…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-08-12 Danylo Malyuta , Behcet Acikmese , Martin Cacan

In this work, we propose an ensemble forecasting approach based on randomized neural networks. Improved randomized learning streamlines the fitting abilities of individual learners by generating network parameters in accordance with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-12 Grzegorz Dudek , Paweł Pełka

Generative models have demonstrated remarkable potential in time series analysis tasks, like synthesis, forecasting, imputation, etc. However, offering limited coverage for generative models, existing time series libraries are mainly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Chenxi Wang , Xiaorong Wang , Peiyang Li , Yi Wang

To what extent can we forecast a time series without fitting to historical data? Can universal patterns of probability help in this task? Deep relations between pattern Kolmogorov complexity and pattern probability have recently been used…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-01-25 Kamaludin Dingle , Rafiq Kamal , Boumediene Hamzi

Extensive efforts to gather materials data have largely overlooked potential data redundancy. In this study, we present evidence of a significant degree of redundancy across multiple large datasets for various material properties, by…

Scientific fields such as insider-threat detection and highway-safety planning often lack sufficient amounts of time-series data to estimate statistical models for the purpose of scientific discovery. Moreover, the available limited data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-16 Daniel Emaasit , Matthew Johnson

We address the problem of nonparametric estimation of characteristics for stationary and ergodic time series. We consider finite-alphabet time series and real-valued ones and the following four problems: i) estimation of the (limiting)…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-11-01 Boris Ryabko

The growing study of time series, especially those related to nonlinear systems, has challenged the methodologies to characterize and classify dynamical structures of a signal. Here we conceive a new diagnostic tool for time series based on…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2017-07-05 G. Corso , T. L. Prado , G. Z. dos S. Lima , S. R. Lopes

In order to trust the predictions of a machine learning algorithm, it is necessary to understand the factors that contribute to those predictions. In the case of probabilistic and uncertainty-aware models, it is necessary to understand not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-19 Danny Wood , Theodore Papamarkou , Matt Benatan , Richard Allmendinger

The predictability of a time series is determined by the sensitivity to initial conditions of its data generating process. In this paper our goal is to characterize this sensitivity from a finite sample by assuming few hypotheses on the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2012-12-13 Quentin Giai Gianetto , Jean-Marc Le Caillec , Erwan Marrec

This study aims to predict failure times for some units in some lifetime experiments. In some practical situations, the experimenter may not be able to register the failure times of all units during the experiment. Recently, this situation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-13 Mahmoud Mansour , Mohamed Aboshady

Neural networks achieve outstanding accuracy in classification and regression tasks. However, understanding their behavior still remains an open challenge that requires questions to be addressed on the robustness, explainability and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-13 Anna-Kathrin Kopetzki , Stephan Günnemann

We reexamine the classical linear regression model when the model is subject to two types of uncertainty: (i) some of covariates are either missing or completely inaccessible, and (ii) the variance of the measurement error is undetermined…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-05 Shuzhen Yang , Jianfeng Yao

The in-depth analysis of time series has gained a lot of research interest in recent years, with the identification of periodic patterns being one important aspect. Many of the methods for identifying periodic patterns require time series'…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-15 Maximilian Toller , Roman Kern

The lack of interpretability remains a key barrier to the adoption of deep models in many applications. In this work, we explicitly regularize deep models so human users might step through the process behind their predictions in little…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-17 Mike Wu , Michael C. Hughes , Sonali Parbhoo , Maurizio Zazzi , Volker Roth , Finale Doshi-Velez

Complex black-box predictive models may have high performance, but lack of interpretability causes problems like lack of trust, lack of stability, sensitivity to concept drift. On the other hand, achieving satisfactory accuracy of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Alicja Gosiewska , Przemyslaw Biecek