Related papers: Incorporating a Volatility Smile into the Markov-F…

This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…

We study the shapes of the implied volatility when the underlying distribution has an atom at zero and analyse the impact of a mass at zero on at-the-money implied volatility and the overall level of the smile. We further show that the…

This study investigates the short-term asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility surface (IVS), with a particular focus on the at-the-money (ATM) skew and curvature, which are key determinants of the IVS shape and whose are widely…

We consider a stochastic volatility model where the dynamics of the volatility are given by a possibly infinite linear combination of the elements of the time extended signature of a Brownian motion. First, we show that the model is…

Empirical evidence suggests that fixed income markets exhibit unspanned stochastic volatility (USV), that is, that one cannot fully hedge volatility risk solely using a portfolio of bonds. While [1] showed that no two-factor…

Probabilistic machine learning techniques can learn both complex relations between input features and output quantities of interest as well as take into account stochasticity or uncertainty within a data set. In this initial work, we…

We derive a new, exact and transparent expansion for option smiles, which lends itself both to analytical approximation and, perhaps more importantly, to congenial numerical treatments. We show that the skew and the curvature of the smile…

The Probability Distribution Function of plasma density fluctuations at the edge of fusion devices is known to be skewed and strongly non-Gaussian. The causes of this peculiar behaviour are, up to now, largely unexplored. On the other hand,…

This paper considers mutual obligations in the interconnected bank system and analyzes their influence on joint and marginal survival probabilities as well as CDS and FTD prices for the individual banks. To make the role of mutual…

We perform a detailed comparison between a Markov Switching Jump Diffusion Model and a Markov Switching {\alpha}-Stable Distribution Model with respect to the analysis of non-stationary data. We show that the jump diffusion model is…

In this paper similar to [P. Carr, A. Itkin, 2019] we construct another Markovian approximation of the rough Heston-like volatility model - the ADO-Heston model. The characteristic function (CF) of the model is derived under both…

A major drawback of the Standard Heston model is that its implied volatility surface does not produce a steep enough smile when looking at short maturities. For that reason, we introduce the Stationary Heston model where we replace the…

In this paper, we demonstrate through the use of matrix calculus a transparent analysis of fractional inhomogeneous Markov models for life insurance where transition matrices commute. The resulting formulae are intuitive matrix…

In this study, we constructed daily high-frequency sentiment data and used the VAR method to attempt to predict the next day's implied volatility surface. We utilized 630,000 text data entries from the East Money Stock Forum from 2014 to…

The paper proposes a class of financial market models which are based on inhomogeneous telegraph processes and jump diffusions with alternating volatilities. It is assumed that the jumps occur when the tendencies and volatilities are…

There is a well developed framework, the Black-Scholes theory, for the pricing of contracts based on the future prices of certain assets, called options. This theory assumes that the probability distribution of the returns of the underlying…

The continuous observation of the financial markets has identified some stylized facts which challenge the conventional assumptions, promoting the born of new approaches. On the one hand, the long-range dependence has been faced replacing…

We analyze the VIX futures market with a focus on the exchange-traded notes written on such contracts, in particular we investigate the VXX notes tracking the short-end part of the futures term structure. Inspired by recent developments in…

In this paper, we introduce a new time series model having a stochastic exponential tail. This model is constructed based on the Normal Tempered Stable distribution with a time-varying parameter. The model captures the stochastic…

Volatility prediction--an essential concept in financial markets--has recently been addressed using sentiment analysis methods. We investigate the sentiment of annual disclosures of companies in stock markets to forecast volatility. We…