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Numerical evaluation of performance measures in heavy-tailed risk models is an important and challenging problem. In this paper, we construct very accurate approximations of such performance measures that provide small absolute and relative…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-28 Eleni Vatamidou , Ivo J. B. F. Adan , Maria Vlasiou , Bert Zwart

We consider continuous time risk processes in which the claim sizes are dependent and non-identically distributed phase-type distributions. The class of distributions we propose is easy to characterize and allows to incorporate the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-28 Oscar Peralta , Matthieu Simon

In this paper we study the asymptotic decay of finite time ruin probabilities for an insurance company that faces heavy-tailed claims, uses predictable investment strategies and makes investments in risky assets whose prices evolve…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Henrik Hult , Filip Lindskog

In this paper we consider a compound Poisson risk model with regularly varying claim sizes. For this model in [1] an asymptotic formula for the finite time ruin probability is provided when the time is scaled by the mean excess function. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-13 Søren Asmussen , Dominik Kortschak

We investigate the probability that an insurance portfolio gets ruined within a finite time period under the assumption that the r largest claims are (partly) reinsured. We show that for regularly varying claim sizes the probability of ruin…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-15 Hansjörg Albrecher , Bohan Chen , Eleni Vatamidou , Bert Zwart

This article studies asymptotic approximations of ruin probabilities of multivariate random walks with heavy-tailed increments. Under our assumptions, the distributions of the increments are closely connected to multivariate…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-12 Miriam Hägele

We study the ruin problem over a risk process described by a discrete-time Markov model. In contrast to previous studies that focused on the asymptotic behaviour of ruin probabilities for large values of the initial capital, we provide a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-08-26 Ilya Tkachev , Alessandro Abate

We consider the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg risk model with claim sizes that are mixtures of phase-type and subexponential variables. Exploiting a specific geometric compound representation, we propose control variate techniques to…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Hansjörg Albrecher , Martin Bladt , Eleni Vatamidou

We consider the multivariate risk model with common renewal process among the lines of business, and Brownian perturbations. Assuming that the integrated tail distribution of claims is multivariate subexponential, we establish an asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Dimitrios G. Konstantinides

In many applications, significant correlations between arrivals of load-generating events make the numerical evaluation of the load of a system a challenging problem. Here, we construct very accurate approximations of the workload…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-02 Eleni Vatamidou , Ivo J. B. F. Adan , Maria Vlasiou , Bert Zwart

We consider in this paper a risk reserve process where the claims and gains arrive according to two independent Poisson processes. While the gain sizes are phase-type distributed, we assume instead that the claim sizes are phase-type…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Zbigniew Palmowski , Eleni Vatamidou

In this paper, we generalise the results presented in the literature for the ruin probability for the insurer--reinsurer model under a pro-rata reinsurance contract. We consider claim amounts that are described by a phase-type distribution…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-15 Krzysztof Burnecki , Zbigniew Palmowski , Marek Teuerle , Aleksandra Wilkowska

We study a multidimensional renewal risk model, with common counting process and cadlag returns. Considering that the claim vectors have common distribution from some multivariate distribution class with heavy tail, are mutually weakly…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-18 Dimitrios G. Konstantinides , Charalampos D. Passalidis

Using the results of precise large deviation and renewal theory for widely dependent random variables, this paper obtains the asymptotic estimation of the random-time ruin probability and the uniform asymptotic estimation of finite-time…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-24 Yang Chen , Zhaolei Cui , Yuebao Wang

In this short note, we derive explicit formulas for the joint densities of the time to ruin and the number of claims until ruin in perturbed classical risk models, by constructing several auxiliary random processes.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-22 Peng Liu , Chunsheng Zhang , Lanpeng Ji

Significant correlations between arrivals of load-generating events make the numerical evaluation of the workload of a system a challenging problem. In this paper, we construct highly accurate approximations of the workload distribution of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-02 Eleni Vatamidou , Ivo J. B. F. Adan , Maria Vlasiou , Bert Zwart

We deal with a generalization of the classical risk model when an insurance company gets additional funds whenever a claim arrives and consider some practical approaches to the estimation of the ruin probability. In particular, we get an…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Yuliya Mishura , Olena Ragulina , Oleksandr Stroyev

In this paper a quantitative analysis of the ruin probability in finite time of discrete risk process with proportional reinsurance and investment of finance surplus is focused on. It is assumed that the total loss on a unit interval has a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-14 Helena Jasiulewicz , Wojciech Kordecki

We develop accurate approximations of the delay distribution of the MArP/G/1 queue that cap- ture the exact tail behavior and provide bounded relative errors. Motivated by statistical analysis, we consider the service times as a mixture of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-21 Eleni Vatamidou , Ivo J. B. F. Adan , Maria Vlasiou , Bert Zwart

In this paper we determine bounds and exact asymptotics of the ruin probability for risk process with arrivals given by a linear marked Hawkes process. We consider the light-tailed and heavy-tailed case of the claim sizes. Main technique is…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-07 Zbigniew Palmowski , Simon Pojer , Stefan Thonhauser
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