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Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how inference can…
Time series often exhibit non-ergodic behaviour that complicates forecasting and inference. This article proposes a likelihood-based approach for estimating ergodicity transformations that addresses such challenges. The method is broadly…
Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…
We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that…
The errors-in-variables (EIV) regression model, being more realistic by accounting for measurement errors in both the dependent and the independent variables, is widely adopted in applied sciences. The traditional EIV model estimators,…
Time series subject to change in regime have attracted much interest in domains such as econometry, finance or meteorology. For discrete-valued regimes, some models such as the popular Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) describe time series whose…
A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…
There is a serious and long-standing restriction in the literature on heavy-tailed phenomena in that moment conditions, which are unrealistic, are almost always assumed in modelling such phenomena. Further, the issue of stability is often…
We study Bayesian methods for large-scale linear inverse problems, focusing on the challenging task of hyperparameter estimation. Typical hierarchical Bayesian formulations that follow a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach are possible for…
This paper proposes a stochastic model using the concept of Markov chains for the inter-state transitions of the millisecond order quasi-stable phase synchronized patterns or synchrostates, found in multi-channel Electroencephalogram (EEG)…
The recently proposed generalized epidemic modeling framework (GEMF) \cite{sahneh2013generalized} lays the groundwork for systematically constructing a broad spectrum of stochastic spreading processes over complex networks. This article…
Prediction of epilepsy based on electroencephalogram (EEG) signals is a rapidly evolving field. Previous studies have traditionally applied 1D processing to the entire EEG signal. However, we have adopted the Gram Matrix method to transform…
GARCH-type time series (characterized by Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) exhibit pronounced volatility, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. To address these challenges and enhance predictive accuracy, this…
The paper proposes an identification procedure for autoregressive gaussian stationary stochastic processes wherein the manifest (or observed) variables are mostly related through a limited number of latent (or hidden) variables. The method…
A new decomposition method for nonstationary signals, named Adaptive Local Iterative Filtering (ALIF), has been recently proposed in the literature. Given its similarity with the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and its more rigorous…
Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) arises in modeling of financial time series. FIGARCH is essentially governed by a system of nonlinear stochastic difference equations ${u_t}$ =…
The linear fractional stable motion generalizes two prominent classes of stochastic processes, namely stable L\'evy processes, and fractional Brownian motion. For this reason it may be regarded as a basic building block for continuous time…
We consider the parameter estimation of Markov chain when the unknown transition matrix belongs to an exponential family of transition matrices. Then, we show that the sample mean of the generator of the exponential family is an…
Principal component analysis (PCA) algorithms use neural networks to extract the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix from the data. However, if the process is non-Gaussian, PCA algorithms or their higher order generalisations provide…
We propose a new method for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of nonlinear mixed effects models when the variance matrix of Gaussian random effects has a prescribed pattern of zeros (PPZ). The method consists in coupling the recently…