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In two-player zero-sum games, the learning dynamic based on optimistic Hedge achieves one of the best-known regret upper bounds among strongly-uncoupled learning dynamics. With an appropriately chosen learning rate, the social and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Taira Tsuchiya

This work studies external regret in sequential prediction games with both positive and negative payoffs. External regret measures the difference between the payoff obtained by the forecasting strategy and the payoff of the best action. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi , Yishay Mansour , Gilles Stoltz

We establish empirical bounds on behavioral inference through controlled experiments at scale: LLM-based agents assigned one of 36 behavioral profiles (9 belief systems x 4 motivations) generate over 1.5 million behavioral sequences across…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Jason Starace , Terence Soule

Robot decision-making increasingly relies on data-driven human prediction models when operating around people. While these models are known to mispredict in out-of-distribution interactions, only a subset of prediction errors impact…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Kensuke Nakamura , Ran Tian , Andrea Bajcsy

In repeated-game applications where both the collusive and non-collusive outcomes can be supported as equilibria, researchers must resolve underlying selection questions if theory will be used to understand counterfactual policies. One…

General Economics · Economics 2021-01-18 Emanuel Vespa , Taylor Weidman , Alistair J. Wilson

Bayesian optimization is a framework for global search via maximum a posteriori updates rather than simulated annealing, and has gained prominence for decision-making under uncertainty. In this work, we cast Bayesian optimization as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-24 Amrit Singh Bedi , Dheeraj Peddireddy , Vaneet Aggarwal , Brian M. Sadler , Alec Koppel

We address the problem of sequential prediction with expert advice in a non-stationary environment with long-term memory guarantees in the sense of Bousquet and Warmuth [4]. We give a linear-time algorithm that improves on the best known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 James Robinson , Mark Herbster

Information-theoretic Bayesian regret bounds of Russo and Van Roy capture the dependence of regret on prior uncertainty. However, this dependence is through entropy, which can become arbitrarily large as the number of actions increases. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-09 Shi Dong , Benjamin Van Roy

Bayesian persuasion studies how an informed sender should influence beliefs of rational receivers who take decisions through Bayesian updating of a common prior. We focus on the online Bayesian persuasion framework, in which the sender…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-03-03 Martino Bernasconi , Matteo Castiglioni , Andrea Celli , Alberto Marchesi , Nicola Gatti , Francesco Trovò

Human cooperation depends on how accurately we infer others' motives--how much they value fairness, generosity, or self-interest from the choices they make. We model that process in binary dictator games, which isolate moral trade-offs…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-12 Gregory Stanley , Jun Zhang , Rick Lewis

Decision-making individuals often imitate their highest-earning fellows rather than optimize their own utilities, due to bounded rationality and incomplete information. Perpetual fluctuations between decisions have been reported as the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-16 Yiheng Fu , Pouria Ramazi

To make decisions we are guided by the evidence we collect, as well as the opinions of friends and neighbors. How do we integrate our private beliefs with information we obtain from our social network? To understand the strategies humans…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-04 Bhargav Karamched , Simon Stolarczyk , Zachary Kilpatrick , Krešimir Josić

Cooperation in heterogeneous groups, where individuals differ in resources, productivity, and behavioural responsiveness, underpins collective action across many social and biological systems. Introspection dynamics, in which each player…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Harry Foster , Vincent A. Knight , Sebastian Krapohl

Dynamic game theory is an increasingly popular tool for modeling multi-agent, e.g. human-robot, interactions. Game-theoretic models presume that each agent wishes to minimize a private cost function that depends on others' actions. These…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Cade Armstrong , Ryan Park , Xinjie Liu , Kushagra Gupta , David Fridovich-Keil

We introduce a novel multi-armed bandit framework, where each arm is associated with a fixed unknown credal set over the space of outcomes (which can be richer than just the reward). The arm-to-credal-set correspondence comes from a known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Vanessa Kosoy

We study repeated two-player games where one of the players, the learner, employs a no-regret learning strategy, while the other, the optimizer, is a rational utility maximizer. We consider general Bayesian games, where the payoffs of both…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Yishay Mansour , Mehryar Mohri , Jon Schneider , Balasubramanian Sivan

Social dilemmas have been regarded as the essence of evolution game theory, in which the prisoner's dilemma game is the most famous metaphor for the problem of cooperation. Recent findings revealed people's behavior violated the Sure Thing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-12-23 Zhiming Huang , Lin Yang , Wen Jiang

The objective of this paper is to identify and analyze the response actions of a set of players embedded in sub-networks in the context of interaction and learning. We characterize strategic network formation as a static game of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-10-28 Alex Centeno

We analyze a model of learning and belief formation in networks in which agents follow Bayes rule yet they do not recall their history of past observations and cannot reason about how other agents' beliefs are formed. They do so by making…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-29 M. Amin Rahimian , Ali Jadbabaie

In the multiarmed bandit problem a gambler chooses an arm of a slot machine to pull considering a tradeoff between exploration and exploitation. We study the stochastic bandit problem where each arm has a reward distribution supported in a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-29 Junya Honda , Akimichi Takemura