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Bayesian optimization (BO) iteratively fits a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate to accumulated evaluations and selects new queries via an acquisition function such as expected improvement (EI). In practice, BO often concentrates evaluations…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Jiguang Li , Hengrui Luo

We study Online Convex Optimization (OCO) with adversarial constraints, where an online algorithm must make sequential decisions to minimize both convex loss functions and cumulative constraint violations. We focus on a setting where the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-14 Jordan Lekeufack , Michael I. Jordan

Online learning methods yield sequential regret bounds under minimal assumptions and provide in-expectation risk bounds for statistical learning. However, despite the apparent advantage of online guarantees over their statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-16 Dirk van der Hoeven , Nikita Zhivotovskiy , Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi

Online resource allocation (ORA) is a fundamental framework for sequential decision-making problems under budget constraints, with applications ranging from online advertising to revenue management. In this work, we study a broader setting…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Eleonora Fidelia Chiefari , Francesco Emanuele Stradi , Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi

We revisit the classical problem of Bayesian ensembles and address the challenge of learning optimal combinations of Bayesian models in an online, continual learning setting. To this end, we reinterpret existing approaches such as Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Daniel Waxman , Fernando Llorente , Petar M. Djurić

The goal of online prediction with expert advice is to find a decision strategy which will perform almost as well as the best expert in a given pool of experts, on any sequence of outcomes. This problem has been widely studied and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-22 Parameswaran Kamalaruban , Robert C. Williamson , Xinhua Zhang

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular algorithm for solving challenging optimization tasks. It is designed for problems where the objective function is expensive to evaluate, perhaps not available in exact form, without gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-22 Umberto Noè , Dirk Husmeier

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a data-driven strategy for minimizing/maximizing black-box functions based on probabilistic surrogate models. In the presence of safety constraints, the performance of BO crucially relies on tight probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Oleksii Molodchyk , Johannes Teutsch , Timm Faulwasser

We introduce algorithms for online, full-information prediction that are competitive with contextual tree experts of unknown complexity, in both probabilistic and adversarial settings. We show that by incorporating a probabilistic framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-23 Vidya Muthukumar , Mitas Ray , Anant Sahai , Peter L. Bartlett

We study the sequential general online regression, known also as the sequential probability assignments, under logarithmic loss when compared against a broad class of experts. We focus on obtaining tight, often matching, lower and upper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-02 Changlong Wu , Mohsen Heidari , Ananth Grama , Wojciech Szpankowski

This paper proposes a new family of algorithms for the online optimisation of composite objectives. The algorithms can be interpreted as the combination of the exponentiated gradient and $p$-norm algorithm. Combined with algorithmic ideas…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-09 Weijia Shao , Fikret Sivrikaya , Sahin Albayrak

We consider the problem of statistical learning for the intensity of a counting process with covariates. In this context, we introduce an empirical risk, and prove risk bounds for the corresponding empirical risk minimizers. Then, we give…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-30 Stéphane Gaïffas , Agathe Guilloux

We consider the problem of model selection type aggregation in the context of density estimation. We first show that empirical risk minimization is sub-optimal for this problem and it shares this property with the exponential weights…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-29 Pierre C. Bellec

Bayesian optimization (BO) is among the most effective and widely-used blackbox optimization methods. BO proposes solutions according to an explore-exploit trade-off criterion encoded in an acquisition function, many of which are computed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-19 Louis C. Tiao , Aaron Klein , Matthias Seeger , Edwin V. Bonilla , Cedric Archambeau , Fabio Ramos

We propose a general framework for studying adaptive regret bounds in the online learning framework, including model selection bounds and data-dependent bounds. Given a data- or model-dependent bound we ask, "Does there exist some algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-14 Dylan J. Foster , Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan

Overparameterized models have recently challenged conventional learning theory by exhibiting improved generalization beyond the interpolation limit, a phenomenon known as benign overfitting. This work introduces Adaptive Benign Overfitting…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-02 Luis Ontaneda Mijares , Nick Firoozye

Many real-world optimisation problems such as hyperparameter tuning in machine learning or simulation-based optimisation can be formulated as expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. A popular approach to tackle such problems is Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-28 Juan Ungredda , Juergen Branke

In this paper, we investigate the online non-convex optimization problem which generalizes the classic {online convex optimization problem by relaxing the convexity assumption on the cost function. For this type of problem, the classic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-14 Lin Yang , Cheng Tan , Wing Shing Wong

Following a line of work that takes advantage of vast machine-learned data to enhance online algorithms with (possibly erroneous) information about future inputs, we consider predictions in the context of deterministic algorithms for the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Christodoulos Karavasilis

We study the combinatorial assignment domain, which includes combinatorial auctions and course allocation. The main challenge in this domain is that the bundle space grows exponentially in the number of items. To address this, several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Jakob Weissteiner , Jakob Heiss , Julien Siems , Sven Seuken