Related papers: Conditional convex orders and measurable martingal…
We prove convex ordering results for random vectors admitting a predictable representation in terms of a Brownian motion and a non-necessarily independent jump component. Our method uses forward-backward stochastic calculus and extends…
We give a characterization of optimal transport plans for a variant of the usual quadratic transport cost introduced in [33]. Optimal plans are composition of a deterministic transport given by the gradient of a continuously differentiable…
We consider Monge-Kantorovich optimal transport problems on $\mathbb{R}^d$, $d\ge 1$, with a convex cost function given by the cumulant generating function of a probability measure. Examples include the Wasserstein-2 transport whose cost…
Given two probability measures $\mu$ and $\nu$ in "convex order" on $\R^d$, we study the profile of one-step martingale plans $\pi$ on $\R^d\times \R^d$ that optimize the expected value of the modulus of their increment among all…
Ordered pivotal sampling is one of the simplest algorithm to perform without-replacement unequal probability sampling. It has found uses in the context of longitudinal surveys and spatial sampling, and enables in particular a good spatial…
We introduce a new non-linear optimal transport formulation for a pair of probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$ sharing a common barycentre, in which admissible transference plans satisfy two martingale-type constraints. This bi-martingale…
We extend the celebrated Stone's theorem to the framework of distributional regression. More precisely, we prove that weighted empirical distribution with local probability weights satisfying the conditions of Stone's theorem provide…
For a set-valued stochastic sequence $(G_n)_{n=0}^N$ with relatively open convex values $G_n(\omega)$ we give a criterion for the existence of an adapted sequence $(x_n)_{n=0}^N$ of selectors, admitting an equivalent martingale measure.…
Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law of the calibration-conditional coverage induced by a…
We introduce an algorithm which, given probabilities $\mu \leq_{\text{cx}} \nu$ in convex order and defined on a separable Banach space $B$, constructs finitely-supported approximations $\mu_n \to \mu, \nu_n\to \nu$ which are in convex…
The usual stochastic order and the likelihood ratio order between probability distributions on the real line are reviewed in full generality. In addition, for the distribution of a random pair $(X,Y)$, it is shown that the conditional…
We consider an optimal transport problem between laws of random probability measures: given a base cost function, we build the associated OT cost between probability measures that in turn we use to define the OT cost between probability…
We develop a general framework for extracting highly uniform bounds on local stability for stochastic processes in terms of information on fluctuations or crossings. This includes a large class of martingales: As a corollary of our main…
Convergence diagnosis for Markov chain Monte Carlo is a matter of fundamental importance in computational statistics: it determines the resources allocated to a particular sampling problem and influences the practitioner's view of the…
We study a class of dynamically consistent risk measures that robustify a time-homogeneous Markovian reference model by allowing for distributional uncertainty in its transition laws. We start from one-step convex risk evaluations in which…
Convex combinations of i.i.d. random variables without a finite mean can behave in a strikingly different way from the finite-mean case: as the weight vector becomes more balanced, the resulting combination may become stochastically larger,…
We study the optimal transport between two probability measures on the real line, where the transport plans are laws of one-step martingales. A quasi-sure formulation of the dual problem is introduced and shown to yield a complete duality…
Continuity of the value of the martingale optimal transport problem on the real line w.r.t. its marginals was recently established in Backhoff-Veraguas and Pammer [2] and Wiesel [21]. We present a new perspective of this result using the…
While many questions in robust finance can be posed in the martingale optimal transport framework or its weak extension, others like the subreplication price of VIX futures, the robust pricing of American options or the construction of…
We consider the problem of finding a real valued martingale fitting specified marginal distributions. For this to be possible, the marginals must be increasing in the convex order and have constant mean. We show that, under the extra…