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Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-10 Peter I. Frazier

In statistics, there are a variety of methods for performing model selection that all stem from slightly different paradigms of statistical inference. The reasons for choosing one particular method over another seem to be based entirely on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-29 Danica M. Ommen , Christopher P. Saunders

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 David T. Frazier , Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , Bonsoo Koo

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are of interest from an explainable AI viewpoint, offering transparent probabilistic models for decision support. Baymex is a recently introduced multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for learning discretized BNs,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Damy M. F. Ha , Tanja Alderliesten , Peter A. N. Bosman

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Karl Friston , Thomas Parr , Peter Zeidman

The Bayesian approach to machine learning amounts to computing posterior distributions of random variables from a probabilistic model of how the variables are related (that is, a prior distribution) and a set of observations of variables.…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-07-01 Johannes Borgström , Andrew D Gordon , Michael Greenberg , James Margetson , Jurgen Van Gael

A comprehensive artificial intelligence system needs to not only perceive the environment with different `senses' (e.g., seeing and hearing) but also infer the world's conditional (or even causal) relations and corresponding uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-07 Hao Wang , Dit-Yan Yeung

Naive Bayes is a popular probabilistic model appreciated for its simplicity and interpretability. However, the usual form of the related classifier suffers from two major problems. First, as caring about the observations' law, it cannot…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-16 Elie Azeraf , Emmanuel Monfrini , Wojciech Pieczynski

A core tension in models of concept learning is that the model must carefully balance the tractability of inference against the expressivity of the hypothesis class. Humans, however, can efficiently learn a broad range of concepts. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-02 Kevin Ellis

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stefan T. Radev , Ulf K. Mertens , Andreas Voss , Lynton Ardizzone , Ullrich Köthe

In strategic classification, agents modify their features, at a cost, to ideally obtain a positive classification from the learner's classifier. The typical response of the learner is to carefully modify their classifier to be robust to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-15 Lee Cohen , Saeed Sharifi-Malvajerdi , Kevin Stangl , Ali Vakilian , Juba Ziani

Achieving the Bayes optimal binary classification rule subject to group fairness constraints is known to be reducible, in some cases, to learning a group-wise thresholding rule over the Bayes regressor. In this paper, we extend this result…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-01 Ibrahim Alabdulmohsin

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 G. D'Agostini

Statistical uncertainties are rarely incorporated in machine learning algorithms, especially for anomaly detection. Here we present the Bayesian Anomaly Detection And Classification (BADAC) formalism, which provides a unified statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-26 Ethan Roberts , Bruce A. Bassett , Michelle Lochner

Forecasting techniques for assessing the power of future experiments to discriminate between theories or discover new laws of nature are of great interest in many areas of science. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian forecasting method…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-09-24 Mohammad Hossein Namjoo

Text classification is the process of classifying documents into predefined categories based on their content. It is the automated assignment of natural language texts to predefined categories. Text classification is the primary requirement…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2010-09-28 S. M. Kamruzzaman

The Bayesian approach to the prediction of particle type given measurements of particle location is explored, using a parametric model whose prior is based on the transformation group. Two types of particle are considered, and locations are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-06-17 Robert W. Johnson

Artificial Intelligence (AI), and in particular, the explainability thereof, has gained phenomenal attention over the last few years. Whilst we usually do not question the decision-making process of these systems in situations where only…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-29 Iena Petronella Derks , Alta de Waal

When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-21 George H. John , Pat Langley

The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…