Related papers: What is the `relevant population' in Bayesian fore…
The present letter to the editor is one in a series of publications discussing the formulation of hypotheses (propositions) for the evaluation of strength of forensic evidence. In particular, the discussion focusses on the issue of what…
In the Bayesian paradigm for presenting forensic evidence to court, it is recommended that the weight of the evidence be summarized as a likelihood ratio (LR) between two opposing hypotheses of how the evidence could have been produced.…
This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…
We introduce a Bayesian solution for the problem in forensic speaker recognition, where there may be very little background material for estimating score calibration parameters. We work within the Bayesian paradigm of evidence reporting and…
In the case of informative sampling the sampling scheme explicitly or implicitly depends on the response variable. As a result, the sample distribution of response variable can- not be used for making inference about the population. In this…
In this manuscript, we discuss the substantial importance of Bayesian reasoning in Social Science research. Particularly, we focus on foundational elements to fit models under the Bayesian paradigm. We aim to offer a frame of reference for…
This article attempts to offer some perspectives on Bayesian inference for finite population quantities when the units in the population are assumed to exhibit complex dependencies. Beginning with an overview of Bayesian hierarchical…
We investigate Bayesian predictive inference for finite population quantities when there are unequal probabilities of selection. Only limited information about the sample design is available; i.e., only the first-order selection…
The membership inference problem for publicly released statistics from a private dataset is well-studied. When developing and formally analyzing attack strategies, however, the focus has been on attacks that model the population using only…
Many forensic genetics problems can be handled using structured systems of discrete variables, for which Bayesian networks offer an appealing practical modeling framework, and allow inferences to be computed by probability propagation…
A goal in the forensic interpretation of scientific evidence is to make an inference about the source of a trace of unknown origin. The evidence is composed of the following three elements: (a) the trace of unknown origin, (b) a sample from…
The forensic science community has increasingly sought quantitative methods for conveying the weight of evidence. Experts from many forensic laboratories summarize their findings in terms of a likelihood ratio. Several proponents of this…
This introduction to Bayesian statistics presents the main concepts as well as the principal reasons advocated in favour of a Bayesian modelling. We cover the various approaches to prior determination as well as the basis asymptotic…
Triggered by a recent interesting New Scientist article on the too frequent incorrect use of probabilistic evidence in courts, I introduce the basic concepts of probabilistic inference with a toy model, and discuss several important issues…
What is a population? This review considers how a population may be defined in terms of understanding the structure of the underlying genetics of the individuals involved. The main approach is to consider statistically identifiable groups…
We propose a new approach to explain Bayesian Networks. The approach revolves around a new definition of a probabilistic argument and the evidence it provides. We define a notion of independent arguments, and propose an algorithm to extract…
We argue here about the relevance and the ultimate unity of the Bayesian approach in a neutral and agnostic manner. Our main theme is that Bayesian data analysis is an effective tool for handling complex models, as proven by the increasing…
In the last months, due to the emergency of Covid-19, questions related to the fact of belonging or not to a particular class of individuals (`infected or not infected'), after being tagged as `positive' or `negative' by a test, have never…
Forensic experts use specialized training and knowledge to enable other members of the judicial system to make better informed and more just decisions. Factfinders, in particular, are tasked with judging how much weight to give to experts'…
DNA evidence use in problems of civil and criminal identification is becoming greater. The necessity of evaluating the weight of that evidence may be accomplished using one of the most known powerful tools: the Bayesian networks. In the…